Sunday, November 20, 2016

Monthly: 37-7, Grade C, election trade results

I count 37 winners, 7 loser for the November option cycle. Grade is C. In the old days, there a term "gentleman's C." I am up a smidge for the trading month. Considering how surprised I was by the market reaction to the election, I did well to come out ahead. 

Of my four election trades placed in late August only one came in a winner. The bets had max payoffs with gold up 10%, bonds up 7%, stocks up 5% or down 10%. Up 5% in stocks was the only winner. Gold and bonds dropped. Bonds and interest rate stocks dropped hard on the election news.

I got stopped out on a lot of trades. Almost all of them would have been better had I held on. That said, sticking to rules is more valuable than a few positive outcomes. The worst case of selling naked options can be really, really bad. So I prefer to exit and take the loss rather than risk even bigger losses, by defending or doubling down.

Here is the YTD summary:
SLV +19.3% silver
IWM +16.3% U.S. small cap stocks
GLD +13.5% gold
EEM +7.5% emerging market stocks
SPY +7.2% U.S. large cap stocks

My trading account is +8.6% so right about even with SPY when factoring in the dividends. Not great, but not bad either. If you had offered +8% for the year on January 1st, I would have taken it. For the year, U.S. Treasury bonds have given up all of their substantial. Gold and silver have slipped back to the pack, allowing U.S. small cap stocks to get near the top.

My schedule is busier than ever, so trading and blogging will tend to be light. Have a Happy Thanksgiving. Anyone reading this with time and money to invest, has a whole lot to be grateful for. Of course, there are those with more, those with less, but we can all be grateful.

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