Monthly: Smelling like a rose, 63-8, Grade B+

I count 63 winners, 8 losers for the October option cycle. Grade B+. There are costly whipsaws in NVDA and TSLA. I am up about 14% for the year, which is good, but nothing amazing.

Here are some etfs I track and their ytd performance, best to worst:

EEM +32.1% emerging markets equity
SPY +15.0% S&P 500, US large cap

IWM +11.2% Russell 2000 US small cap
GLD +10.9% gold

SLV +6.4% silver
TLT +4.1% US 20-year treasury bonds

Precious metals and bonds are slipping, after a strong first half of the year. Equities continue to power ahead. The surprise continues to be EEM considering the chatter about trade wars early in the year. My trading account is at +14% s, right in line with SPY and IWM.

Again, for newer readers, I tend to describe myself as a cautious, slow moving options trader. During strong bull moves I often lag. Considering that I expected a 5% to 8% correction in September/October, and made several trades in early September based on that, I have come out smelling like a rose.

I try not to let my expectations paint me into a corner. Listen to the markets. It remains a bull market. Those expecting a sharp pullback to let them in have been waiting for years now. I signaled a red flag warning on this blog in April 2014 at SPY 187 mostly based on valuations. SPY is 257 today, almost 40% higher in 3 1/2 years. If I had stayed stuck on valuation warnings, I would have missed out on those gains, Some traders have taken losses while the most hated bull market of all time, continues to march to new highs.