Monthly: Shorter days, less trading, 44-4 Grade B

As the days grow shorter, so does my time for the stock market. I count 44 winners, 4 loser for the Novemeber option cycle, self-grade B. I make modest gains, slightly closing the gap between my portfolio and buy-and-hold of SPY.

Here are a few etfs, best to worst YTD:
EEM +33.7% Emerging market equity
SPY +15.4% S&P 500, U.S. large cap

GLD +12.1% gold
IWM +10.1% Russell 2000, U.S. small cap

SLV +7.9% silver
TLT +6.1% 20-year U.S. treasury bonds

my trading account +15.4% right with SPY, but SPY also has +1.5% in dividends.

With less time, I will tend to be ever more cautious. The bull market is intact. Corrections are likely to be shallow, but eventually we will get a scare. The big one? Likely a good ways off, considering how much chatter there still is about a crash. Seems like only a few people have the money and mentality to invest in the market, that the mania often seen at major tops seems far off. Most of the chatter at the gym, the coffee shop or church isn’t about the stock market. Of course, there will be a correction, a bear market, but for now, seems like most corrections are shallow.

Bear market? Again, look for an inverted yield curve, transports leading the market lower. Semi conductors and financials can also lead the market lower. Yes, valuations are stretched, but they have been for a few years now. A blow off top could bring about a sharp down turn, but it would be from higher levels.