Friday, January 19, 2018

Monthly: Run your own race, 50-5, grade C-

I count 50 winners 5 losers for the January option cycle. The market went up like a rocket ship, leaving me behind. The grade is C-, a passing grade, but not a good one. There were some ghastly percentage losers in the 5. Some call buyers made 3000%+ on their way out of the money call buys. I was on the other side of some of those.

Year to date, my account is up 1.2%. Here are a few etfs, best to worst, for calendar 2018 (three weeks).

EEM +7.0% emerging markets equity
SPY +5.4% US large cap, SP500


IWM +4.1% US small cap Russell 2000
GLD +2.8% gold


SLV +0.3% silver
TLT -3.0% US 20 year treasury bonds
So it could be worse. I could be all in long on bonds.

The cliché that comes to mind is “run your own race.” Some readers might be marathon runners, or long distance bike riders. If the pack starts fast, or you get in with a fast group, it can be folly to try and match pace if that isn’t your plan.
Option premium sellers, especially those that tend towards delta neutral strategies, are likely to suffer during sharp up, or down moves.


Rule #1 is to live to trade another day. Despite the huge unexpected up move in the market, I managed a small profit. If this is a "bad" month for me, it is going to be another good year for my account.

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