Weekly: New all time highs

Most of US stock indexes record new all time highs. The advance/decline line, transports confirm the high. The bearish case includes valuations, narrowing leadership. However, the tale of the tape is bullish. Don’t fight the tape. This week new longs include: TGT LOW JWM PANW TWLO. I sell way out of the money puts. My thinking is that any decline is likely to be contained to 10%.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Tue New all time high for SPY
Sell SPY Sep28 270 p 87

Sell BRKB Oct 190 p 58
Sell AAPL Sep 190 p 37

Sell JWM Oct 50 p 33
Sell SPG Oct 160 p 53

Sell TGT Sep 72.5 p 32 pre-earnings
Sell UNH Sep 240 p 53

Wed Target and Lowes go up on earnings
Sell TGT Sep 77.5 p 17

Sell LOW Sep 95 p 23
Sell IWM Oct 155 p 63

Sell QQQ Oct 160 p 78
Sell BBY Sep 65 p 19

Roll CMG for 195 credit: Cover Sep 410 p for profit
Sell CMG Sep 475 p 229

Thu I sell some puts way, way out of the money. The trade off is high probability, for tiny reward, relatively large risk. My thinking is that any new decline will likely be contained at 10%, so want to sell at least 10% out of the money.

Sell PANW Sep 180 p 87
Sell GRUB Sep 115 p 45

Sell AMZN Sep28 1500 p 109
Sell HON Sep 145 p 23

Fri Sell TWLO Sep 65 p 31
Sell SPY Oct 265 p 98
Sell NFLX Sep 300 p 51