Monthly: 66-4 grade B+, TLRY TSLA and landmines

SPY moves to all time record highs. I count 66 winners 4 losers for the September option cycle. Grade is B+. TSLA was the biggest loser this month. Before new readers get excited about the high win percentage, understand that I have been especially cautious. I am selling options way, way out of the money. Often the probability going in is 92% or higher at entry. So the 94% win rate is about as expected.

Personally, moving was the big story these past few weeks. The move took up a lot of my time and energy. I will be continue to be time pressured during the fall. I will try to keep up with the blog as best I can.

Here are a few etfs year-to-date:

IWM +11.8% Russell 2000 US small cap stocks
SPY +9.8% S&P 500 US large cap stocks

TLT -7.7% US 20-year treasuries
GLD -8.2% gold

EEM -8.3% Emerging market stocks
SLV -15.9% silver

My account up about 12.5% for the year. I am ahead of SPY and IWM. I don’t include QQQ in the etf summary, but am a bit behind that. If at the start of the year, someone offered me up 12%, I’d take that. I am not a spring chicken, so need to be more conservative than a young person with a high savings rate.

As for the market, new highs, new highs, more new new highs. It is still a bull market. Perhaps the most hated bull market of all time. Newbies and veterans keep looking for a crash. To be sure, some valuation metrics such as the Schiller PE10, and GDP vs. total US market cap are at danger levels. The yield curve is flattening, perhaps on its way to inversion. However, all three of those are not timing indicators. To me, it means to stay cautious because a correction can happen at any time.