Stocks start the year with a minor dip. Then the bulls take the wheel, with record highs in many major US indexes. Other investments such as bonds, gold lag. I make decent gains, self-grade B+. About half my gains are from Nvida. I have a small position in shares, and lean long with options. Tesla is a laggard. I maintain large cash reserves, waiting and watching for clearer opportunities.
Here a few ETFs 2024 year-to-date:
QQQ Nasdaq 100 2.8%
SPY SP500 1.5%
GLD gold -1.7%
IWM Russell 2000 -4.1%
TLT US20 yr -4.8%
EEM emerging mkt -4.5%
SLV silver -5.1%
My trading account +2.5%, so better than SPY. I remain over weight big tech. I believe the AI revolution is only in the second inning. There will be any number of small or new companies that become large companies, that aren’t even on my radar yet. With this in mind, the strategy of buying QQQ on dips. SPY might be good too. American companies are more likely to embrace the new changes.
European governments may try in vain to save human jobs, with the unintended result of their big companies lagging those that embrace AI. It isn’t all puppies and rainbows. There have already been and will continue to be significant disruptions. People on the short end of the stick will need to adapt or suffer.
There is a dark side. Dictatorships will have no qualms about weaponizing AI. This is down the road, but will almost inevitably come. Hopefully, the ethical side will prevail, but there are no guarantees. Think about big inventions such as the steam engine, or electricity, and how much those changed the world. AI is on the same scale. Unlike industrial inventions, AI is mostly about ideas and processes. Any changes are potentially much quicker.
It is always prudent to have some emergency supplies, food, water, meds, barter goods on hand. I’m not talking about massive stock piles, but two weeks worth, cost near nothing and will get a person through average disruptions.
No comments:
Post a Comment