Back in the day, the song Impossible Dream from Man of LaMancha, was popular. This comes to mind with the gyrations of the market. Some imagine how much money they could make if they could time, those highs and lows, even in one stock, much less the market. For almost all of us, this is an impossible dream. Any way to phrase it:
Perfection is a hope a dream, an illusion.
Those that buy lows tend not to be those that sell highs. Investing legend Warren Buffett, says he never met a successful long term market timer. Of course some make great short term calls, and may get it right over a short time period. Over the long term, the market is always evolving. Indicators that work during one period, may fail spectacularly as the market shifts.
Those with big money that try to time the stock market tend to also trade bonds, currencies, commodities and make the bulk of their money outside of the stock market.
Here are some ETFs year-to-date:
SLV silver 30.4%
GLD gold 26.7
QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.8%
SPY SP500 16.6%
IWM Russell 2000 10.5%
EEM emerging mkt 8.7%
TLT US20 yr 0.0%
My trading account +19.4, so ahead of SPY. Grade for the month is B-. I remain over weight big cap tech with medium sized positions in AMZN and NVDA. Another significant holding is shares of BRKB.
The NFL football season has started. Over reaction to one good or bad game is common, early in the season. Hard to discern whether some teams have real strengths or weaknesses, that become apparent over the course of the year. The analogy to the stock market is the desire to over react to one news event, or one bad day or week.
The pipe dream of being able to time highs and lows doesn’t go away. However, realism from so many years of trading sets in. I am who I am. Just getting there for me, was a long journey, because the psychology of trading was a big topic for me. Almost everyone has some emotional attachment to money. May five percent can be near emotionless from the start. For maybe 10 percent, the emotional issues are front and center.
The big picture plan remains in place. Buy signficant dips, over weight big cap tech. Some trimming along the edges might be done. Good luck to all.
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