Saturday, September 15, 2018

Weekly: mild up week

A mild up week, with SPY challenging its old highs. No major hits or misses for me this week. The moving saga continues. Other parts of my life are also demanding more time, so less time for trading.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Cover AAPL Oct 275 c 04 for profit
Sell AAPL Oct 250 c 34
Sell TSLA Sep28 190 p 147
Sell AMZN Sep 2175 c 93

Wed Sell MU Sep 35 p 23
Sell NFLX Sep28 310 p 55
Sell PANW Oct 190 p 35

Thu Rally day. I add long delta.
Sell AAPL Oct5 195 p 27


Sell PAYC Oct 130 p 45
Sell GRUB Oct 115 p 55


Sell IWM Oct5 157.5 p 20
Sell QQQ Oct5 170 p 30


Sell SPY Oct12 275 p 57

Fri Cover BA Sep 275 p 02 profit
Sell BA Oct 300 p 42


Sell NVDA strangles: Sell NVDA Oct 325 c 29
Sell NVDA Oct 230 p 73

Friday, September 07, 2018

Weekly: stress test, down 3%

A stressful week for me. This is an abbreviated post because I’m moving. So I won’t detail the trades. Moving is stressful enough, but the market made for a lot more stress.

I closed positions in Facebook and Tesla for huge losses. Declines in Alphabet aka Google, and Amazon added to the red ink. Overall down about 3% for my account. My gains for the year are around 8% after this horrid week.

I haven’t met anyone that enjoys moving. Hopefully, I’ll get done soon, but it may be a few more weeks of stress. Cheers.

Friday, August 31, 2018

Weekly: Chipotle sours my week

CMG was the big stinker this week. A downgrade, and other news drops Chipotle stock. I take a big loss on one leg as it breaches my mental stop level. Overall, I end the mostly quiet week with a miniscule loss. AMZN NFLX run too hot for my taste, causing some legs to drift into the red.

September/October can be treacherous months in the market. However, sentiment continues to be promising, with very little public chatter about the stock market at social gatherings, and newbie after newbie asking about crash scenarios online. While no indicator is 100%, sentiment at major market tops tends have a lot of people talking about the market, and a lot of newbies dreaming of trading for a living.

A lot of time and energy is being taken up by my upcoming move, so I haven’t been as active in the markets. I did open new long positions in risky stocks such as PAYC SPNK TLRY. Enjoy the long weekend.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Records highs. The most hated bull market in history continues to roll.

Sell SPLK Sep 105 p 51
Sell TSLA Sep 400 c 49


Sell PAYC Sep 135 p 60
Sell CMG Sep 565 c 75


Sell SPY Oct5 272.5 p 77
Sell QQQ Sep28 170 p 48


Sell AMZN Sep 2200 c 60
Sell AMZN Oct 1525 p 196

Tue BestBuy down on earnings.
Sell BBY Sep 85 c 15 turning position into a strangle


Sell SPY Sep 275 p 42
Sell QQQ Sep 173 p 40

Wed Tilray up on earnings
Sell TLRY Sep 33 p 25
Sell SPY Nov 262 p 126


Sell QQQ Oct 165 p 50
Sell IWM Sep28 162 p 41


Sell AMZN Sep28 1700 p 154
Sell AAPL Oct 195 p 60


Sell TLRY Sep 35 p 50
Sell TSLA Sep28 400 c

Thu Sell TGT Oct 75 p 18
Sell QQQ Nov 160 p 76
Sell IWM Nov 150 p 57

Fri Chipotle continues lower. I take a big loss on one leg
Cover CMG Sep 475 p 1240 big loss
Cover CMG Sep 600 c 05 profit
Cover SPY Aug31 292 c 03 profit

Sell SPY Oct 307 c 17
Sell NFLX Sep 310 p 30
Sell CMG Sep 430 p 145

Friday, August 24, 2018

Weekly: New all time highs

Most of US stock indexes record new all time highs. The advance/decline line, transports confirm the high. The bearish case includes valuations, narrowing leadership. However, the tale of the tape is bullish. Don’t fight the tape. This week new longs include: TGT LOW JWM PANW TWLO. I sell way out of the money puts. My thinking is that any decline is likely to be contained to 10%.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Tue New all time high for SPY
Sell SPY Sep28 270 p 87


Sell BRKB Oct 190 p 58
Sell AAPL Sep 190 p 37


Sell JWM Oct 50 p 33
Sell SPG Oct 160 p 53


Sell TGT Sep 72.5 p 32 pre-earnings
Sell UNH Sep 240 p 53

Wed Target and Lowes go up on earnings
Sell TGT Sep 77.5 p 17


Sell LOW Sep 95 p 23
Sell IWM Oct 155 p 63


Sell QQQ Oct 160 p 78
Sell BBY Sep 65 p 19


Roll CMG for 195 credit: Cover Sep 410 p for profit
Sell CMG Sep 475 p 229

Thu I sell some puts way, way out of the money. The trade off is high probability, for tiny reward, relatively large risk. My thinking is that any new decline will likely be contained at 10%, so want to sell at least 10% out of the money.


Sell PANW Sep 180 p 87
Sell GRUB Sep 115 p 45


Sell AMZN Sep28 1500 p 109
Sell HON Sep 145 p 23

Fri Sell TWLO Sep 65 p 31
Sell SPY Oct 265 p 98
Sell NFLX Sep 300 p 51

Friday, August 17, 2018

Monthly: Loserville 70-4 grade C-

I lose a little over 1% for the August option cycle. I count 70 winners 4 losers, which sounds great until you hear the size of the losses. I get whipsawed in Chipotle, taking a 2000% loss on one leg

Here are some etfs best to worst, 2018 ytd performance:

IWM +10.5% Russell 2000, US small cap
SPY +7.2% S&P 500 US large cap


TLT -4.6% US 20-year Treasuries
GLD - 9.3% gold


EEM -10.4% emerging markets equities
SLV -12.9% silver

My account +10.8%. So I gave a little back this month, but am still having a decent year. It is telling that the US stock market is going up almost alone. Many foreign markets are in correction mode, some even in bear markets.

I confess to getting nervous on expiration Friday as many stocks moved lower in the morning. After the recent big losses, I took profits instead of waiting it out on expiration day.

Rule #1 remains: Live to trade another day.

Sometimes that translates into reducing risk after taking some big hits.
Reversion to the mean often works, but when it fails, and there is a trending move, those whopper losers can zap an account. I took another 20x loss in sold Chipotle calls, only to see CMG whipsaw back down the next day on a food scare. Markets can be perverse like that.


I plan to be moving soon, so while I will try to keep the blog up to date, posts may be spotty, late perhaps abbreviated. I have yet to meet the person that enjoys moving. Cheers.

Weekly: Losers CMG FB TSLA

I take big losses in Chipotle, Facebook and Tesla. It is a painful week. Every day seems to bring another hit. I am down about 1.1% for the week.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Sell TSLA Sep 435 c 87
Sell SYY Nov 60 p 21 new long

Wed A really bad day for me, down almost 2%. Chipotle rallies and the rest of the market sells off. I close one CMG leg for a 20x loss. I reduce risk by closing a few trades for profit
Cover CMG Sep 520 c 2180 about a 2000% loss


These are all closed for profit
Cover GOOGL 1300 c 05
Cover FB Sep 155 p 54


Cover QQQ Sep 160 p 54
Cover SPY Sep7 261 p 53
Cover BA Aug 320 p 56

Sell CMG Sep 610 c 210
Sell NFLX Sep 405 c 31
Sell GOOGL Sep 1390 c 105

Thu New long in Walmart on earnings news. Chipotle falls on food news. Facebook declines triggering my mental stop loss on one leg. I end the day with a gain +0.5%.

Roll CMG: Cover CMG Sep 610 c 160 for profit
Sell CMG Sep 620 c 100 cover after news same day 45 for profit


Sell WMT Sep 90 p 20
Sell COST Sep 200 p 40


Sell JPM Sep 105 p 23
Sell PYPL Sep 75 p 23


Chipotle lower after food news
Cover CMG Sep 435 p 215 for profit
Sell CMG Sep 600 c 90


Facebook lower, triggering my mental stop level
Cover FB Aug 175 p 151 for big loss


Roll: Cover FB Sep 220 c 05 profit
Sell FB Sep 205 c 17

Fri I get nervous in the morning, and close out a bunch of trades for profit. Telsa tumbles on news.


Cover TSLA Aug 295 p 118 for profit
Cover TSLA Sep 200 p 315 for profit
Cover GOOGL 1185 p 30 profit


Cover NFLX Aug 310 p 57 breakeven
Cover FB Sep 145 p 33 profit

Sell TSLA Aug31 425 c 24

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Tesla and Turkey

Tesla and Turkey dominate the news. TSLA CEO Elon Musk tweets that the company may go private at $420 a share. The stock booms higher. On Friday, news from Turkey sent the entire market lower. I escape with tiny gains for the week.

I plan to move soon, so updates may be delayed and/or abbreviated. Thank you to all the dedicated readers.

Mon Upside bias continues. AMZN BRKB CMG FB are among stocks moving up this morning.

Sell CMG Aug 430 p 45
Sell AMZN Sep 1550 p 339

Sell SPY Sep14 267 p 64
Sell QQQ Sep14 165 p 56

Sell NFLX Sep 275 p 53
Sell IWM Sep14 153 p 44

Sell FB Sep 165 p 98
Sell BRKB Sep 190 p 43

Cover FB Aug 200 c 24 for profit
Cover FB Sep 215 c 35 for profit

Tue Elon Musk threatens to take Tesla private at $420, causing a massive short squeeze.

Sell GOOGL Sep 1150 p 480
Sell FB Aug 175 p 25

Sell TSLA Sep 270 p 178

Wed Roll CMG 175 credit: Cover CMG Sep 395 p for profit
Sell CMG Sep 435 p 238

Sell TSLA Sep 450 c 117
Sell SPY Sep 268 p 75
Sell QQQ Sep 168 p 64

Fri Cover SPY Sep 263 p 75 for profit
Sell FB Sep 210 c 28

Saturday, August 04, 2018

Weekly: Whipsaw on FB

I get whipsawed on Facebook as it breaks 170 to the downside on Monday. I cover, then it rebounds to close the week around 178. These things happen. The good news is a profitable week, after a rough two week while I was away. As for the rest of the week, I make adjustments as stocks move around. Tesla booms higher after its earnings. Chipotle has another food scare then recovers.
Mon Facebook moves lower again. I take some profits and a couple of big losses.

Cover FB 170 p 480 big loss
Cover FB Sep 170 p 720 big loss

Cover QQQ Aug 163 p 47 profit
Cover QQQ Aug24 163 p 73 profit

Cover SPY Sep 255 p 88 profit
Cover TSLA Aug 225 p 263 profit

Cover SPY Aug24 260 p 41 profit
Sell GOOGL Aug 1330 c 202

Sell SPY Aug31 292 c 19
Sell NFLX Aug 395 c 47

Sell GRUB Aug 145 c 25
Sell FB Sep 135 p 25

Tue Chipotle has another food scare.
Sell CMG Sep 520 c 112

Wed
Apple up on earnings, close to $1 trillion market cap.
Cover FB Sep 205 c 46 profit
Sell AAPL Sep 170 p 31

Thu
Tesla booms higher. The DJIA moves lower in the morning, then rallies off its lows.

Roll GOOGL155 credit Cover GOOGL Aug 1330 c 79 profit
Sell GOOGL Aug 1300 c 234

Sell QQQ Sep 160 p 64
Sell SPY Sep7 261 p 58

Sell TSLA Aug 295 p 141

Fri
Sell FB Sep 155 p 72
Sell CMG Sep 410 p 225

Monday, July 30, 2018

Vacation update and late Monthly report: 122 -14 Grade B

I am back from my trip. Suffice it to say, I would have been better off not doing any trading. I took some big hits in NFLX, FB and am in the red on several other trades in GOOGL and other underlyings.

For the monthly option cycle ending 7/21/18, I count 122 winners 14 losers. Please understand that most are high probability trades, so a high win rate is baked into the cake. I use the strike price as a mental stop level. Some of the losers were big ones, whoppers 500% 1000% 3000% of the premium collecte.

Here are a few etfs, best to worst for 2018 performance:

IWM 10.5% Russell 2000 U.S. small cap
SPY 5.1% SP500 U.S. large cap

TLT -4.8% U.S. 20 year Treasury bonds
GLD -5.7% gold

EEM -6.7% emerging markets equity
SLV -8.8% silver

My account was +11.8% through July third week expiration. That's the good news. At that point, I was ahead of the pack, well ahead of SPY. Since then I lost a couple of percentage points, so the current year to date is more like +9%, which isn't bad, but it was better. It's been a tough couple of weeks and a day.

I decided not to post the trades during the time away. I’ll resume posting weekly trade summaries this Saturday. Someone asked me today, if this is a buying opportunity. My answer: I don’t know. The market will tell me what to do.

Rule #1 is to live to trade another day.

Saturday, July 21, 2018

Vacation post 10-10-50 Freedom plan

I am away so won’t give the regular updates. I made a couple of trades, including a poorly timed selling of NFLX calls early Tuesday. That leg turned into a 600 percent loss when I closed it mid-day. Still, NFLX trades have been a net positive for me in 2018.

For the year SPY is up about 2.5 percent. My account up about 11 percent. Good news.

Anyway, I sometimes talk about what I call the 10-10-50 plan to financial freedom. If a person can live off half their wages, make 10 percent per year investing, in ten years they can be financially free.

For example, a person earns $50,000 a year. Save half of that for ten years and the straight amount is $250,000. Earn 10 percent a year on that and it is close to financial freedom. The simple example ignores taxes and inflation, but also leaves out any gains during the savings phase.

There is a lot more to life than money, but so many young people seem to yearn for that freedom, I think the idea worthwhile.

I’ll be back with full updates in August. Until then.

Friday, July 13, 2018

Weekly: Bully Bully and Vacation time

I’ll be traveling for two weeks, so updates may be delayed or not as detailed. Trading may be less, but I will still be checking the markets.

This week, markets rally with a brief pullback on tariff news. Mostly I keep adjusting by adding long delta. I take a loss on one leg on Facebook. I take profits on some other underlyings.

Mon Stocks rally on no news. That means the bias is higher
Sell TSLA Sep 200 p 415
Sell FB Sep 170 p 137


Sell IWM Aug 155 p 51
Sell QQQ Aug3 162 p 49


Sell SPY Aug3 263 p 55
Sell FB Aug 175 p 94

Sell IWM Aug10 159 p 52
Sell SPY Aug10 264 p 73
Tue Cover SPY Jul27 285 c 23 profit
Sell BA Sep 275 p 117

Sell QQQ Jul 170 p 29
Sell SPY Aug3 267 p 57

Sell PEP Aug 105 p 38 earnings
Sell NVDA Aug3 230 p 108

Wed Sell MA Aug 185 p 81
Sell FB Aug 250 c 19


Sell QQQ Aug 163 p 65
Sell SPY Aug24 260 p 84

Sell QQQ Aug24 163 p 76
Sell SPY Aug31 259 p 90


I take profits on some Netflix legs ahead of earnings.
Cover NFLX Jul 480 c 210 profit
Cover NFLX Jul 340 p 106 profit


Take a loss on this Facebook leg as it crosses the strike price
Cover FB Jul 205 c 300 loss

Take profits on some other options to adjust delta
Cover QQQ Jul 182 c 16 profit
Cover TSLA Jul 290 p 167 profit
Fri Take more profits on calls as the rally rolls on. All profits:
Cover AMZN Jul 1900 c 108
Cover BA Jul 365 c 44
Cover BA Aug 385 c 151


Sell SPY Sep 255 p 118

Again, I’ll be traveling for two weeks, so updates may be delayed or not as detailed.

Friday, July 06, 2018

Weekly: Another nightmare on Tesla street

A lot of my attention was on TSLA. I did poorly, suffering some big losses as it gapped higher on Monday, then dropped about 20% during the week. The good news is that I am up for the week, though not on Tesla positions.

Mon Wild day in Tesla. TSLA gaps higher on production news, than careens lower on a downgrade. I cover three positions, open three new ones. For the most part, I am on the wrong side of the price action, selling high, buying low, as I keep rebalancing to get closer to neutral. Despite mangling several trades, volatility crush in TSLA and a rally in the broad market leads me to a big gain for the day +1.6%.

Cover TSLA Jul6 300 p 103 for profit
Cover TSLA Jul 300 p 365 for profit
Roll for credit: Cover TSLA Jul13 400 c 80 for profit


Sell TSLA Jul13 375 c 201
Sell TSLA Jul13 315 p 207
Sell TSLA Jul 425 c 126
Sell TSLA Jul27 400 c 295


Tue It is an ugly down day. I lose 2.3%. Tesla giveth and taketh. TSLA down hard -24 to 310 after chief engineer resigns. I sell multiple layers of TSLA calls, but it is not enough with the big decline. I have some hard decisions to make as I am short three layers of puts at the 310 strike (right where TSLA closed). I didn’t close any of them yet. Facebook also down hard on more data sharing news.

Sell TSLA Jul 370 c 215
Sell TSLA Jul 377.5 c 143
Sell TSLA Jul6 365 c 22


Sell TSLA Jul 365 c 195
Sell FB Jul 205 c 67
Sell NVDA Jul 267.5 c 35


Wed July 4th Market holiday

Thu Morning weakness in Tesla takes out stops on four legs of sold puts. I bleed red ink taking huge losses on four legs. I cover a couple TSLA call legs for a profit, but it is mostly red. Thankfully, other positions offset the huge losses and I end the day in the green.

These four were huge losses:
Cover TSLA Jul6 310 p 741
Cover TSLA Jul 315 p 1550
Cover TSLA Jul13 305 p 1149
Cover TSLA Jul 310 p 1725


These two call legs are closed for modest profits
Cover TSLA Jul 365 c 128
Cover TSLA Jul 377.5 c 75


I take some risk off in other underlyings, these are profits:
Cover BA Jul 310 p 128
Cover SPY Aug 284 c 39
Cover QQQ Aug 185 c 28


The lone new position is
Sell TSLA Jul 250 p 112

Fri Markets open lower then rally. I mostly add long delta. Tesla stabilizes, but a lot of damage was done earlier in the week.

Sell TSLA Jul 357.5 c 105
Sell FB Aug 170 p 100
Sell QQQ Aug10 157.5 p 70


Sell IWM Aug3 156 p 47
Sell SPY Aug10 255 p 72
Sell SPG Aug 150 p 61


Sell FB Jul 187.5 p 38
Sell IWM Sep 150 p 92
Sell QQQ Sep 153 p 110
Sell SPY Sep 247 p 129

Cover SPY Jul 281 c 33 for profit

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Weekly: Getting hit v Getting run over

At my stock market meetup, I hear the following:

You are going to get hit, but avoid getting run over.



A football analogy follows. If a quarterback holds the ball too long, odds of a big hit increase. Sometimes an incomplete pass or even taking a safe sack is a relatively good outcome. Bad outcomes would be a turnover, or injury. This lines up with my Rule #1: Live to trade another day. I use position sizing and mental stop loss levels to achieve this goal. I observe many novices trying to turn every trade into some kind of win. Sometimes it is better to throw the ball away and start over.


I get whipsawed near the lows on a few positions. The losses are big, but manageable. SMH semiconductors and XLF financials are leading the market lower. Financials and semis are about a 40% weight in the S&P 500, so the broad market can’t sustain a rally without these two sectors participating.


Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):


Mon Deep red floods my screen as trade war fears increase. I lose over 3% today. I take some profits, rebalance some other positions. A few underlyings are nearing my mental stop levels.


Sell BA Jul 365 c 93
Sell SPY Aug3 284 c 29
Sell IWM Aug 176 c 36
Sell NFLX Jul 480 c 315



Sell NVDA Jul 272.5 c 76
Sell QQQ Aug 185 c 46
Sell TSLA Jul 385 c 430
Sell BABA Jul 217.5 c 55


All these 12 covered for profit to reduce risk, if the move down continues.
Cover SPY Jul6 260 p 39
Cover SPY Jul 254 p 66
Cover SPY Jul13 254 p 68
Cover TSLA Jun29 300 p 144


Cover TSLA Jul 420 c 175 (roll down)
Cover QQQ Jul 153 p 46
Cover IWM Jul 148 p 32
Cover AAPL Jul 165 p 55


Cover FB Jul 175 p 84
Cover NFLX Jul 300 p 195
Cover NVDA Jun29 210 p 26
Cover QQQ Jul13 155 p 42

Tue Market has a mild up day after Monday’s steep sell off. I make up more than half the loss.
Sell SPG Aug 145 p 67
Sell GOOS Jul 67.5 c 17

Wed An ugly reversal day as the DOW loses a 300 point gain to close down over 160. I lose another 2.2%. I got busy the last hour of trading and several underlyings closed below mental stop levels. I plan to close them tomorrow.

Sell QQQ Jul 180 c 25
Sell SPY Aug 184 c 52
Sell TIF Aug 115 p 49
Sell TSLA Jul 290 p 263

Thu A mild rebound. I close out four positions for losses as they cross the mental stop level (strike price). Three of the four rebound by the end of the day, making for a frustrating whipsaw day. However, the theme it to take a hit, to avoid the chance of getting run over.

These four closed for losses:
Cover SPY Jun29 270 p 171
Cover CAT Jul 135 p 505
Cover WYNN Jul 165 p 635
Cover BABA Jul 185 p 715


I sell further out puts, but the main damage is done:
Sell BABA Jul 150 p 31
Sell CAT Jul 110 p 20
Sell WYNN Jul 135 p 17

Sell AMZN Jul 1900 c 140
Sell AMZN Jul 1380 p 158
Sell GRUB 121 c 22
Sell MA Jul 210 c 33

Sell XOP Aug 35 p 16
Sell RH Jul 175 c 15
Sell TIF Jul 145 c 22
Sell TSLA Jul27 300 p 550

Fri Another volatile day, as the market rallies then fades. Unfortunately, I add longs near the highs.

Sell QQQ Aug3 155 p 66
Sell MA Jul 180 p 36
Sell SPY Aug3 252.5 68


Sell NKE Jul 72.5 p 15
Sell SPY Jul 280 c 30
Sell IWM Jul 171 c 15

Friday, June 22, 2018

Weekly: Down we go

A rough week for me. I lose more than 2%. AMZN BA CAT TSLA lead the list of problem underlyings. DIA has eight straight down days before a relief rally on Friday. Tesla goes up quickly, then down quickly.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Tesla rallies for the seventh day in a row.
Sell TSLA Jul 310 p 432

Sell TSLA Jun22 330 p 40
Sell TSLA Jul6 310 p 151


Sell FB Jul 180 p 59
Sell GOOS Jul 50 p 25 new long

Tue An additional $200 billion in tariffs against China, lead to a steep opening sell off. I take a big loss on one leg of sold Boeing puts. I cover some sold SPY puts for tiny profits, to reduce risk. Tesla finally dips on news.

Cover SPY Aug 254 p 118 all four for tiny profit
Cover SPY Jul 260 p 80
Cover SPY Jul13 260 p 64
Cover SPY Jul 257 p 71


Cover BA Jun29 340 p 715 for huge loss -650%
Sell SPY Jul27 285 p 33


Sell QQQ Aug 190 c 27
Sell BA Jul 380 c 120


Sell BA Aug 385 c 315
Sell BA Jun29 370 c 81


Sell TSLA Jul 450 c 195
Sell NVDA Jul 300 c 28


Sell WYNN Jul 200 c 39
Sell AAPL Jul 200 c 42


Sell IWM Jul 175 c 18
Sell TSLA Jul6 425 c 134


Sell NFLX Jul 330 p 209
Sell CAT Jul 162.5 c 18

Wed Markets recover. Netflix roars to new highs, over 414 now.
Sell IWM Jul27 157 p 50

Sell NFLX Jul 340 p 268
Sell QQQ Jul27 162.5 p 66


Sell SPY Jul27 258 p 67
Sell FB Jul13 185 p 76


Sell SHAK Aug 52.5 p 45
Sell FB Jul 185 p 77


Sell BA Jul 300 p 88
Sell IWM Jul27 157 p 50


Sell NFLX Jul 340 p 268
Sell QQQ Jul27 162.5 p 66


Sell SPY Jul27 p 258 67
Sell FB Jul13 185 p 76


Sell FB Jul 185 p 77
Sell SHAK Aug 52.5 p 45


Sell BA Jul 300 p 88
Sell TSLA Jul13 305 p 305


Sell IWM Jul 159 p 49

Roll AMZN for 244 credit: Cover AMZN Aug 1350 p 306 for profit
Sell AMZN Aug 1425 p 545

Thu Another leg down makes for painful day for me, as I lose another 1.2%, now down over 2% for the week. AMZN BA CAT being some of the bigger losers today.

Sell TSLA Jul13 340 c 220
Sell CAT Jul 160 c 19

Sell VLO Jul 130 c 15
Sell BA Jul13 380 c 39

Sell BA Jul 375 c 89
Sell AMZN Jul 2000 c 120

Fri Sell QQQ Jul 184 c 22
Sell TSLA Jul 420 c 295


Sell TSLA Jul13 400 c 260
Cover TSLA Jun 330 p 01 for peace of mind a few minutes before the close.

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Monthly 84-6, Grade B

Another positive month for me, as the market rallies. I count 84 winners, 6 losers for this monthly option cycle. Market ran a bit too hot for me. I took some big losses on sold calls. Stupid loss on one Tesla leg, cost me big time. I sold a cheap option with high risk and suffered one of the biggest percentage losses ever, about 5500%. So the call buyer made about 55x their money. Most galling was that had I held until expiration, the option expired worthless.

The lesson isn’t to let it ride, because some other sold calls on NFLX and TSLA would have become even bigger losers had I not honored the mental stop loss levels and taken the hits.


Here are a few etfs that I track and their year-to-date performance:

IWM +10.1% Russell 2000 US small cap
SPY +4.2% S&P 500 US large cap

GLD -1.9% gold
SLV -2.4% silver

EEM -4.0% emerging markets equity
TLT -5.1% US 20-year treasuries

My trading account up 9.2%, which is good, not great. There is room for improvement. Last year’s big winner EEM is lagging this year. Gold and silver have been dead money for a while now. Bonds have trended lower. The cliché Sell in May hasn’t been working. I did lighten up a bit early in May. The strong rally had me rebalancing, and taking losses on some sold calls. Despite being wrong on the general market direction, I made close to 3% for the month. I’ll take that.


Going forward, the bull market is still intact. Far too many folks on Reddit, are far too cautious. Many in the fearful camp are relatively inexperienced folks being scared by click-bait type of articles, or focusing on one or two indicators. It isn’t all puppies and rainbows, but the preponderance of evidence favors a continued bull market.

I keep watching the yield curve. If all goes on schedule, the dreaded inverted yield curve will come into effect by late this year. This is a mild bear market indicator, so it doesn’t mean head for the hills. It may mean to lighten up and shift to a slightly bearish bias, from my slightly bullish bias.

Friday, June 15, 2018

Weekly: Netflix leads rally

Netflix is now worth more than Disney. I take a loss on some sold NFLX calls. Market dips on Friday, after more up days.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Rally rolls on. I take a loss on some sold SPY calls.
Cover SPY Jun22 279 c 147 for 600% loss


Sell BA Aug 320 p 268
Sell NFLX Jul 315 p 258


Sell SPY Jul 265 p 105
Sell SPY Aug 261 p 151


Sell QQQ Aug 158 p 107

Tue Sell SPY Jul6 266 p 53
Sell TSLA Jun29 300 p 199


Wed Netflix rallies on news. Market fades late after Fed hike and news.
Cover NFLX Jun 370 c 470 for 500% loss


Sell TLSA Jun22 300 p 101
Sell QQQ Jun29 167 p 34


Sell SPY Jun29 270 p 55
Sell NFLX Jul 500 c 52

Thu Sell IWM Aug 152 p 65
Sell RH Jul 125 p 95 new long


Sell QQQ Jul 164 p 57
Sell TSLA Jul 300 p 385


Sell TSLA Jul6 300 p 234

Fri Sell BA Jul 400 c 62
Sell BA Aug 430 c 57


Sell SPY Aug 290 c 51

Saturday, June 09, 2018

Weekly: Nightmare on Tesla street

DIA has its best week of the year, up 2.8%, other averages up big too. TSLA has a huge rally after its shareholder meeting. I get burned badly, closing some sold calls near the top of the move. Thankfully the positions are small. The pain is real, especially with a reversal after I cover. Despite the TSLA crap storm and a 5500% loss on one leg, I eek out a tiny gain for the week.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Rally rolls on. Nasdaq at a new high.
Cover QQQ Jun 173 c 205 for big loss
Sell SPY Jun22 261 p 44


Sell SPY Jul 257 p 100
Sell AAPL Jul 175 p 60


Sell IWM Jul6 152.5 p 38
Sell QQQ Jul6 161 p 47


Sell NFLX Jun29 325 p 136
Sell WYNN Jul 210 c 75


Sell NVDA strangle 201: Sell NVDA Jul 235 p
Sell NVDA 315 c


Sell TSLA Jun 260 p 65
Sell SPY Jun 265 p 37


Roll AMZN for 529 credit: Cover AMZN Jul 1350 p 170
Sell AMZN Aug 1350 p 699

Tue Sell FB Jul6 177.5 p 54
Sell GRUB Jul 90 p 47


Sell SPY Jul6 260 p 68
Sell TSLA Jun8 322.5 c 15


Sell QQQ Aug 150 p 59
Sell WYNN Jun 190 c 42

Wed Tesla up after shareholders meeting.
Sell TSLA Jun22 275 p 197


Sell TLSA Jun 280 p 100
Sell BA Jul 325 p 160

Sell SPY Jul13 260 p 71
Sell SPY Aug 254 p 130


Roll BABA for 73 credit: Cover BABA Jul 165 p 19 for profit
Sell BABA Jul 185 p 92


Rally picks up speed, I scramble to add more long delta.

Sell TSLA Jun 290 p 122
Sell BA Jun29 340 p 96


Sell SPY Jun22 266 p 42
Sell SPY Jul 260 p 87


Sell QQQ Jul 161 p 61
Sell TSLA Jun29 280 p 227

Thu Tesla rallies again. It becomes a nightmare day for me, as I cover sold calls for huge losses near the top, then TSLA reverses. Yikes. Thank goodness for small position sizing.

Cover TSLA Jun8 322.5 c 845 might be biggest percentage loss ever 5500% range. Call buyers could have made 55x their money, trading opposite me. By the end of the day, TSLA lower.

Cover TSLA Jun 330 c 935 near the exact top about a 2000% loss. Ouch. Double ouch that it was the top of the day so far.
Sell TSLA Jun 295 p 112


Sell TSLA Jun 390 c 34
Sell TSLA Jun22 375 c 84


Sell TSLA Jun29 395 c 52
Sell BABA Jul 240 c 36


Sell FB Jul 215 c 31
Sell SPY Jul 265 p 110

Fri Sell SPY Jul 262 p 92
Sell COST Jul 185 p 41

Friday, June 01, 2018

Weekly: Yo-Yo market

Market drops, then recovers, drops then recovers in yo-yo action. Overall, the market and my account are up for the week.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Tue News from Italy is the catalyst for a market drop.
Sell SPY Jun22 279 c 21
Sell NVDA Jun29 210 p 51

Sell SHAK Jul 47.5 p 25
Sell CMG Jun 395 p 90

Sell CMG Jun 500 c 20
Sell MSFT Jun 92 p 20

Sell QQQ Jun29 c 15
Sell SPY Jul 281 c 40

Sell BRKB Jul 210 c 47
Sell JPM Jun 115 c 12

Wed Markets rebound, then gain strength. I add long delta through out the day.
Sell DVN Jul 35 p 27

Sell FB Jun29 167.5 p 41
Sell HES Jul 50 p 31 31

Sell MA Jul 170 p 79
Sell NFLX Jun29 300 p 86

Sell QQQ Jul6 155 p 53
Sell SPY Jun29 255 p 75

Sell JPM Jul 95 p 41
Sell TSLA Jun 245 p 70

Sell BRKB Jul 175 p 56
Sell TIF Jul 110 p 29

Sell MU Jul 45 p 17
Sell IWM Jun 153 p 18

Sell SPG Jul 145 p 46
Sell QQQ Jul 153 p 72

Sell SPY Jul 251 p 109
Sell IWM Jun29 153 p

Thu Yo-yo market goes back down.
Sell GRUB Jun 92.5 p 20
Sell TSLA Jun 330 c 41

Sell BA Jun 380 c 28
Sell FB Jun29 212.5 c 23
Sell AAPL Jul 210 c 20

Fri Week ends on a positive note. Costco and Ulta Beauty modestly lower on earnings.
Sell QQQ Jul13 155 p 51
Sell SPY Jul13 254 p 84

Sell COST Jun 210 c 10
Sell MU Jul 90 c 11

Sell QQQ Jul 157 p 65
Sell FB Jul 175 p 88

Sell SPY Jul 254 p 102
Sell NFLX Jul 300 p 251
Sell BA Aug 295 p 196