Tuesday, October 24, 2006

volatility (VIX) and price trends

Interesting article about the correlation between VIX, the volatility on options and stock prices going forward (link). Most suprising is number three, which goes against common wisdom >>

3) We have never had a bear market within 60 trading days of a low volatility period - Yes, we've had market corrections of about 5-6% in March/April, 2006; August, 2005; September, 1994; January, 1994; and July, 1985. We have never had a decline of 10% or more, however. The idea that we are in a complacent market period and hence due for a frightening drop is not supported by market history.

No comments: