I haven't mentioned gold recently. There is not much to write about. Gold remains in a relatively narrow range and looks like it is building a long term base (2-year-chart). The recent weakness is only a buying opportunity for scalpers. The upside remains limited to the old highs from last May. The downside is all the way back down to 600 (60 on GLD). The chart for GDX Gold stock ETF doesn't look much either, with limited opportunities at significant risk for longs or shorts. Readers know that I favor high probability trades with at least the perception of low risk.
The broad stock market is getting hit today. Is this the start of a bigger sell off? If I had to bet, I would bet yes. The 12 month calendar seasonality is against the market now, though the presidential election cycle still counts as bullish. Sentiment is again complacent. The market news seems dominated by mergers and shooting stars on earnings news. Most of the earnings movers are getting to their price targets lickity-split without much correction.
Mergers and acquistion activity, I see as bullish. However, the house of cards can tumble if a high probability merger falls through and the merger arbitrage scalpers get the rug pulled out from under them.
Well, like gold's year to nowhere, this blog entry doesn't have much new to report, that most readers don't already know.
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