True Contrarian (link) and Random Roger (link) both mention China in their latest entries. Mr. Kaplan at True Contrarian sees a late stage bubble. Mr. Nusbaum the ETF investor reports a recent IPO going up 71% on the first day. Nusbaum is primarily interested in what spillover a correction or crash in China will have around the world.
Bubbles do tend to pop, though most of the time they expand far beyond the wildest projections of fair value. When a bubble is forming far away, it is more difficult to collect anecdotal evidence. Anecdotal doesn't survive backtesting, and it isn't a surefire indicator. However, in the case of bubbles, it can be powerful.
Closer to home, the U. S. stock market had another bull day. Gold and silver got hit hard. Those that bought last week on the $15 down day in gold are underwater. Some novices that bought that dip, may be in the wishing and hoping mode, rather than managing their risk.
No comments:
Post a Comment