Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Buy M Macy's (sell puts)

Buy M Macy's (sell the July 40 puts). Macy's is up on takeover speculation. Expiration is this Friday, and 40 is support. Worst case is that Macy's plummets 10% by Friday and I get exercised, and have to buy the stock at 40. Best case is the option expires and I pocket the modest premium. In baseball terms this is like seeing the third baseman playing back and trying for a bunt single. Odds are good for the skilled bunter, however, the reward is modest, the bunt single.

My TXN Texas Instruments is likely to get called away this Friday at 35 (currently 38). I also have some RJET Republic Air stock unhedged.

For the most part today's market decline looks orderly and much needed. Railroads are up as a group on takeover rumors.

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