Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Is the bottom in?

Is the bottom in? That is the question on most trader's minds. Today's strong Buffet induced rally, then fizzle makes one wonder. I don't have a strong opinion either way. Buying at a retest of the lows seems the high percentage play. Of course we might not get that retest. Selling naked puts at strike prices at the lows is one way to do an equivalent. Though if the market does drop to retest, those puts will mean a big paper loss. So far I haven't said much, other than the market might go up, might go down, might be unchanged. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing. I took a look at one-year charts for each of the 30 Dow stocks and none of them look compelling short or long.

Gold had a bad day. The conspiracy folks will blame the IMF authorizing a sale gold. The central banks have less and less of the gold in play, so with each passing year, are less of an influence. Gold chart, and gold stock charts look terrible, and if I weren't a long term bull, I would be tempted to try to play the weakness.

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