Friday, February 29, 2008

Rollercoaster ride continues

I've been flat for some time now. The rally off last Friday's low fizzled, but it was a relatively big move as trading rallies go. Again, the hindsight traders have a field day, buying at the lows, getting out at the top, in hindsight that is, not in real life.

IBM looks like a tempting long with their announced buy back. However, I think it has plenty of room lower before they get aggressive on the buy side.

Silver nears $20. Gold continues to make new highs. It is foolish to try and call top when the bullish momentum remains strong. It would also be foolish to try and jump on the moving train on the long side. Long termers should be looking to add to positions on pullbacks. My opinion is that it is still early in the bull market. Some other commodities have out performed the metals. Gold in particular hasn't done all that well considering what oil has done. Gold and oil have a strong historical correlation.

Again, for me, the temptation is to try and time each of these short lived swings, and over trade. I resist the temptation and continue to wait for my pitch. Right now, most markets are too wild and wooly for my taste. I couldn't pull the trigger going long bonds early this week (TLT). In hindsight, a missed opportunity.

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