I've mentioned several times that a retest of the recent lows might be a good time to buy. Today some traders were watching the SP500 closely as it neared the recent lows. The SPY is a proxy and doesn't show the retest as clearly (six-month-chart).
The way it happened makes me suspect. Another rumor about a much anticipated bailout of ABK. A similar rumor about ten days ago, launched a furious rally of four days and about 5%. This rally could fizzle before 24-hours with a much more modest gain off the low. The market doesn't look so good to me. Early March is a strong seasonal period. A good bit of IRA money flows in at this time, along with early tax return money. Those that have to write a check, tend to do it closer to deadline and may account for some of the traditional seasonal weakness in stocks in late March.
Precious metals had a hard down day. Certainly not a time to panic either way, after the gains that have occurred. A lot of fish seem to be biting on this move up. When enough little fish are in, the big fish will close the trap and take their money by shaking them out with some sharp and violent price drops.
I am looking at a lot of stocks, but remain flat for now.
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