KISS and Bogle

From Marketwatch interview with John Bogle (link):

>>
Keep it simple

Bogle's message has always been simple and straightforward, based on the belief that it's the market -- not the manager -- that rewards an investor for taking a long-term outlook. Get broad stock and bond exposure, keep costs and taxes to a minimum, and let time in the market, rather than timing the market, be your basic strategy.

He's not about to change now, no matter the beating that the stock market has taken this year, or that he sees it suffering as it works through recession -- a downturn he believes could last up to two more years.
>>



Bogle repeats the oft cited cliche of using a person's age as the percentage to have in bonds.

For those that want market timing without doing market timing (huh?), there are long term indicators such as following the 200 day or 195 day moving average, Dow Theory, and my recent mention of the Value Line Mean Appreciation Potential. The Random Roger Blog that is linked on the right hand margin, focuses on the long term.

I have to the same general opinion as Bogle, that for the average person keeping it simple, and dollar cost averaging into age appropriate investments is by far the best way to go. This is what I tell young people interested in investments. A very small percentage will want to get into stock picking, or technical analysis. Most of those few find the knowledge on their own terms, tend not to need advice, and are self-taught.

As for the stock market, the election came in right on the average of the popular polls with Obama at about 52%, McCain at 46%, so no one should be surprised. I had hoped the rally would get a bit higher to SPY 104, so I could get in some short positions. That may yet unfold, though I still think that new lows or a retest of the stock market lows remain the most likely scenario. The fear vanished from the stock market remarkably quickly, and that is not a good thing for would be bulls.

No trading positions.