Friday, November 07, 2008

A yo-yo stock market and Christmas retail

IT feels like the yo-yo is going up and down the string. Today's rally to close near the highs may give courage to the bulls, but I continue to have my doubts. The range for SPY is bound by the low at 84 and the gap at 100. Right now it is almost dead center of that range. I would be a buyer at SPY 80, and a shorter at SPY 104 or so. Of course, depending on how it gets there.

Personally, I think the fears about this Christmas are overblown. When folks get laid off, they often get severance and/or unemployment and that keeps them going for a while. If the economic conditions continue through next year, that is when the Grinch will impose his will on the holiday. Yes, sales are going to be slow, but I don't think it will be the end of the world.

No trading positions

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