I have one trade for the April option cycle, a winner in AZO. That small and useful profit puts the blog reported trades into the black for calendar 2009. Hooray!
SPY is up 21 points off its low around 66, with this the sixth up week in a row. Like I often write, only a few lucky folks (and a lot of liars and hindsight traders) bought at the bottom. Almost everyone (including me) was skeptical after the 400 point Dow up day that started this rally. Few believed it would continue to run for another six weeks, almost straight up, forming a rare V-shaped bottom on the chart.
That said, the long term SPY 5-year chart still looks like heck (link). Lower lows are out there, but not in the near term. For the time being, the bear has been turned back. I believe any dips are likely to be contained by support at SPY 75.
SPY closed 12/31/08 at 90.24 and is only about three points away from going positive for the year (87.08 today). Meanwhile, GLD has gone negative for 2009, starting the year at 86.52, and now at 85.22. Who would have imagined that stocks and gold would be about even for the year at this date? Not me.
I took a glance at seasonal tendencies for GLD and further weakness into June/July is indicated. The caveat, as always, is that seasonal indicators are among the weakest and least reliable, and that news events can overwhelm technical or seasonal indications.
I go into the May cycle long VMI.
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