The other shoe?

Bill Luby at Vix and More writes about traders waiting for the other shoe (link).

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... it is clear that there is a strong contingent of veteran investors who anticipate not only that the next shoe will drop soon, but that the fallout will be at least as bad as what we experienced during the October-November peak of the crisis.

While I am not ruling out anything at this stage, I do not see the VIX spiking above 60 in the near future, nor do I even see a VIX above 50 as a likely scenario.
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The other shoe is one scenario, however, it seems to me that too many traders are skittish, and thinking that the current rally will be like the Dec 2008 rally, quickly folding and eventually making new lows. Right now, the anecdotal sentiment is such that it makes a quick return to lows unlikely.

What seems more likely to me, is that any short term decline will find support at SPY 75. April is traditionally one of the best months for the stock market, with late IRA money often flowing in, as well as any tax refunds being reinvested in stocks.

Having said that, I don't see that much that seems worth taking a position in. I'll keep looking.

Position: long AZO