Friday, June 05, 2009

Risk taking and happiness

Only tangentially on topic, but interesting to me, I found an article about risk taking and happiness, and a book on the subject at this link.

William Gurstelle writes:
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... here's the cool thing. I found that moderate, rational, risk takers, that is, those with scores between the mean and one standard deviation to the right are the people who are most satisfied with their lives. I call that area "the golden third" because it's roughly 1/3 of the population. Studies (and there are several) show that people who take just a bit more risks than average, that is, those who live their lives in the golden third, tend to do better than average. They tend to be more satisfied with their lives and more fulfilled. To me, that's a stunning conclusion.
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In stock market terms, it isn't easy to quantify where a person fits on the risk scale. Some mutual fund companies use a test to determine risk tolerance so they know what kind of investments might be most suitable for each individual. However, it is one thing to answer a test question under calm rational conditions with no money at stake, and another thing, to make decisions in real time under fluid conditions, when the decisions have consequences.

It reminds me of a true story about a would-be trader that signed up for an expensive advanced option course. During the many weeks of paper trading practice, the person did fine, winning much more often than losing. I don't know if the paper trading quotes were rigged so as to make winning easier or what, but when he started trading with real money, he managed a stunning eight losers in a row, and lost his entire stake in a few weeks.

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