The majority of bond market pundits predict higher yields by the end of the year, and yet yields on bonds fell for the fifth week in a row. It is like a game of chicken where most believe prices will end up lower, but week after week bond prices continue to climb as yields continue to slide. Meanwhile, stocks experienced their fourth losing week in a row. Oil and gold are also at minor lows.
This Reuters article touches on some of the points (link).
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[ten year treasury yielded touched] 3.261, the lowest since May 21 ...
A Bloomberg survey of banks and securities companies projects the yield will be 3.61 percent by year-end ...
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Mark Hulbert makes a strong argument that longer term, yields will be higher and bond prices lower, in this Barrons article (link2).
The open question is why are bond prices moving higher, when longer term most think they are going lower? The obvious answer is that most believe that short term, bonds will move higher, and that they will be smart and nimble enough to sell their bonds before the fundamentals take hold.
Long TM, IWM
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