Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Gold $1000, now what?

Gold futures broke $1000. Now what? Well, I already wrote that a time stop for the GLD trade set to Friday 9/18 seems like the best move. My first price target would be GLD 102/103 and I would be tempted to roll up as a good deal of the potential profit from the 95/105 vertical call spread would be achieved by that price. To stay long, would require action.

Peter Brimelow at Marketwatch writes that gold timer sentiment remains tepid (link).

Breakouts into resistance like this one are often the best moves. An average move from a breakout is 20% or about $1150. With sentiment the way it is, I would guess that this will be more than an average move. As always, no advice given here, sometimes the odds are good, but the trade doesn't work out.

Long GLD, GDX

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