Friday, September 18, 2009

Pushing the envelope

Bill Luby has an interesting article about exposure to new ideas (link).

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Keep pushing the envelope and don’t worry if new pathways look chaotic at first. The more you get out of your comfort zone, the more that zone begins to widen and the better you will be at recognizing important patterns and opportunities across that zone.
>>

I am almost in the other camp, that amateurs especially tend to try too many ideas, too many systems and fail at all of them. The phrase "stick to your knitting," comes to mind. Meaning, find what works for you, and stick to that until it stops working. That doesn't mean a person stops learning. It does mean that it is difficult for a person to change their basic personality or trading style.

If a person hasn't found a style yet, that is where trading journals can be of value. Log each trade, the reasoning behind getting in and getting out. Every now and again, look back at the logged trades. Identify the characteristics of the successful trades vs. the stupid trades, to help find a style that works for you.

As for the markets, GLD is settling back to 99.0 where I initiated the vertical call spread. One theory is that Wednesday's spike up in GLD was in part due to equity options expiring today. Lately, Wednesday before expiration is the day a lot of options get rolled over, causing wider swings.

Another day to mark on the calendar is September 24th when options on futures expire. The futures drive GLD, not the other way around. Usually option expiration moves fade, and are more like hiccups than anything else. Only the most nimble might try and trade these smallish moves, and that would tend to exclude folks like me.

Long GDX*, GLD (2)
*GDX expiring today

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