Barrons: Appetite for risk

Some interesting stuff over at Barrons about the appetite for risk (link).

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This UBS gauge combines equity- and currency-volatility measures; credit spreads; and investor preferences for higher-risk geographic regions, like emerging markets, and stock sectors, like cyclicals.

... by late October, the fear of being out of the market had replaced the fear of being in the market

... readings [on the UBS indicator] higher than 1.3 points above the mean, suggesting high risk appetite, have given its best sell signals. Since 1992, equity returns 12 months from such a reading are just 1% on average. In 2009, the figure began moving above 1.3 in September and hit 1.56 on Oct. 23, the latest data available and the highest point since March 2000.
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This is a red flag for stock market bulls, though up 1% for the next 12 months would not be so bad after what the market has been through.

Changing the subject, my schedule is changing, and I will have a little less time for trading and blogging for the next two months. If there aren't as many blog updates or trades, the schedule change is one reason why. It is also a contributing factor to closing the AAPL trade instead of holding on.

Long GLD