Is this the much anticipated correction that so many traders have been waiting for? I lucked out by mentioning the "time is up" top of Wednesday (10/21/09), last week at SPY 110, nailing it to the exact day.
I didn't take the trade because I don't like playing the "call the top" game and in my trading history, the odds of success tend to be low. My view did caution me in to having equity few longs, and those few are way, way out of the money (the 5% probability of losing trades).
Okay, what next? I see a possible decline to SPY 102 and then a relief rally. Depending on what that rally looks like, it might be the high probability short on the rally failure that I have been writing about.
I am taking on some water on the underlying for AAPL and GLD, but those option trades are still in the 5% chance of losing, so I will hold for now. I may roll one of the GLD positions to Dec.
Long AAPL, GLD (2)
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