Thursday, February 25, 2010

Buy SPY (sell puts)

Buy SPY via selling April 90 puts, SPY @109.1. The delta on my March puts is getting close to zero. The big dip this morning is an opportunity to to get some elevated premium on April options. If I had to guess, I would guess SPY continues lower. However, for the 90 strike to come into play, stocks would fall another 18% by April, which would be full meltdown mode, and I don't see that.

Again, stock market declines of 10% are common. However, -10% in one month is an exceptionally bad month. Two such -10% months is a row would be even more exceptional. It seems like a relatively safe bet to take the other side.

Long GLD, TLT, SPY

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