Saturday, February 06, 2010

SPY target 102.5, GLD 99

My chart reading gives targets of SPY 102.5, and GLD 99, TLT 89. As always, predictions can be entertaining, but the money tends to be made in managing the risk, with right sizing of positions, finding good entry points, and timely exits.

Wow, what a wild ride for most markets on Friday. Again, the exhortation is "don't do anything stupid, fast markets are not my friend." A reassuring thought is that sometimes option positions can be self managing, if the size remains small and the position is properly constructed.

My SPY position is:
short Feb 98 put
long Mar 102 put
short Mar 94 put
That boils down to net short SPY, but not by a lot. If the market decline continued to accelerate down, gamma would kick in and the position starts to reverse to net long SPY.

I'll state the obvious, options are not for everyone--there are a lot of variables.

Long GLD, TLT, TM
Short SPY

No comments: