Election priced in or not?

Tuesday is election day. The question for traders is whether the anticipated results are baked into current prices, or not.

Intrade tracks odds on the election (link) and many other events. Presently the lead item on the page is whether the Republicans will have a House majority. Right now the betting odds are 92% in favor, 8% against. So at least for the Intrade population, that result is 92% baked in.

The caveats are that Intrade bets are small and may not be indicative of the expectations of major stock, bond or gold market participants. Intrade is also likely to be all U.S. participants, while most markets are now global markets. Still, Intrade can indicate whether a result was "surprise" or not.

The election is like a major earnings report or economic data release. If the results are in line with expectations, there may be chatter about a whisper number or some part of the result that is more closely looked at.

Another thing to look at is VIX and option premiums. VIX may have a slight premium due to the election, but not a big one. So option players don't expect a big move either way from election day. I'd guess there is a bit of turbulence, next week, but not much more than that.