Monday, April 11, 2011

$1 million in SLV put options?

Making the rounds is a story about a large put option purchase on SLV (link).

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A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will decline by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high.

The 100,000 puts, or options to sell 100 shares each of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at $25 by July, changed hands at the ask price of about 10 cents and exceeded the open interest of 6,054 outstanding contracts before today, indicating that a buyer of a new bearish position initiated the transaction.

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There is a chance that this is the whole story, but unlikely. Option traders prefer complexity, and often hedge one position against another. I'd put the odds at 95% that this is the case here, that the reported trade is part of a more complex strategy. My most likely guess would be a collar, financing the purchase of the puts by selling out of the money calls, while being long the underlying. A collar is a conservative bullish position with limited upside and crash protection, not a bearish bet.

Elsewhere in the news, PIMCO is reported to be shorting U. S. Treasuries (link2), and Goldman Sachs is reported to be telling clients to get out of oil (link3). I doubt that these stories are revealing all.

The old spy cliche comes to mind: "trust no one," especially news headlines, especially when they are about options.

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