Silver futures /SI on ThinkorSwim neared the sun at $50 yesterday and fell back. Many are trying to predict how low it will go on this first pullback. I often write that when price is uncertain, look at time. On the /SI chart, the futures made a run towards $30 on 11/9/10 and fell back for five days.
It took two more runs at $30 to break through. The second run at 12/6 took out the level, but again fell back for a period of consolidation. The third try 12/31 went a little high, but actually resulted in a longer and deeper correction of three weeks.
With so many looking at price levels, time may be as good an indicator here. Next Monday 5/2/11 is five days, and may see a first bottoming attempt for silver.
Looks like I would have been done better waiting on my GDX and GLD puts sales from yesterday. I haven't hit too many trades solidly square lately.
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