Wednesday, February 01, 2012

AMZN disappoints

I rarely touch on fundamentals on this blog, so readers may be surprised that I sometimes put on that hat. Amazon.com's earnings report is disappointing. In particular the revenue number came in about a billion short of estimates at $17.4 billion. With a market cap of about $80b and growth slowing, that is bad news. There are any number of good places to read more in depth, including this article at Seeking Alpha (link).

I am short a vertical put spread, long Feb 130 puts, short Feb 140 puts. It is an uncomfortable feeling with the bad report. Fortunately, I have room even factoring in the 9% drop after hours to 177. I initiated the position at 175, so likely will be able to exit with a profit if I choose to unwind on Wed 2/1.

Longer term, AMZN doesn't become a value play buy until price-to-sales gets to 1.0, which would be at $48b market cap or about $100 a share. The 5-year chart shows support at 150 and 100 (link2).

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