Buy SPY via selling Mar 119 puts, SPY @134.7. I continue to add stock market exposure for March as February expiration is likely to dissolve many of my current longs. I was already long a vertical put spread: long SPY Mar 114 puts and short SPY Mar 107 puts. SPY 119 is below several support levels and chart congestion areas. Yes, a stock market correction is over due, but because so many people are looking for one, it means it is likely to be shallow and complex. Markets rarely give folks what they are looking for.
A stock market crash is extremely unlikely for 2012. This is an election year, and the powers that be are doing all they can to pump up the various markets, and keep liquidity in the system. 2008 was an aberration for an election year, and unlikely to be repeated. In 2008, the incumbent was not up for reelection. Selling way out of the money puts are basically bets against a crash. I tend to think that any declines will be contained at 10%, and 119 is more than 10% out of the money.
Long APC BRKB IWM SPY TBT XRT
* long AAPL AMZN EEM
* short GDX
* delta is near zero on these positions
No comments:
Post a Comment