Buy SLV (sell puts)

Buy SLV via selling Apr 29 puts, SLV@31.7
I choose the 29 strike because it is round number support at $30 for physical silver. Silver oversold and there was a dealer on the PCGS coin forum saying several customers were getting scared and bailing out (link).

I am tempted to short SPY in here, but remind myself that calling tops is an exciting game, but rarely profitable. A higher percentage play is to wait for a top and then short on a rally failure than to try to call the turn. A lot of traders want to be the hero, and call top on this massive rally. There are certainly signs of a top with recent Marketwatch articles with the theme that the market is going higher. The wording of the titles may not be exact, but the sentiment is:

“It's not too late to buy.”
“Stock market ready for lift off.”
“Stock market likely to go higher.”

With all that there are a thousand would-be hero bears that are all black and blue with losses from trying to call top in this stock market.

Action in the bond market is also of interest. The two day smash down caused some damage. The April to November period tends to be a good time to be long bonds. As always, seasonal indicators are down the list in terms of reliability and profitability, but are worth a look. In terms of options, I would be looking at weakness in bonds as an opportunity to sell puts on TLT (Treasury ETF).

My IWM position has pivoted from long, to neutral because of today's rally and expiring puts on Friday.

Long APC AXP IBM SLV SPY XRT
net neutral IWM
net short GLD
* long BRKB, MCD
* short GDX
* delta near zero on these expiring positions