Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Rebalance APC (sell puts)

Sell Apr APC 77.5 puts @86.9

I rebalance my Anadarko Petroleum position back to net long. APC is up on news of oil from a well in the Gulf of Mexico. Oops, even before I can type all of this APC has dipped to 86.2, so a poor entry.

The news dominating the stock market is from Cyprus. There is also possible Fed news today. April is a long period option month, because the third Friday comes a bit later in the month. There are quite a few companies that will report earnings before April expiration. All of these factors mean there is no hurry to sell premium. I am watching and waiting. The other shoe might be some bank runs on rumors in other Euro countries.

Cyprus is too small to mean anything, but if one of the bigger countries destabilizes it can be trouble. Confidence is a fragile thing. The drum beat of fear is strong. It almost seems like that is what is desired to scare people as much as possible. Don't give in to fear. Act rationally, look at possibilities and probabilities, Don't invest on the 1% or less chance. I prefer to play the 80% or 90% chance and get the small rewards.

Net long APC KORS

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