I
count 52 winners, 3 losers for the April option cycle. After opening
2016 with month after month of mediocre trading (grades D, C-, C), I finally have a
good month. The good news is that I have crossed the Mendoza line and
now have a modest profit for calendar 2016. The bad news is that I am
lagging behind SPY (S & P 500 etf). Still, after opening the year
with an 8% drawdown, getting back to break even is a step forward.
Overall
I was too cautious during a powerful stock market rally. I have also
missed the boat in my trading account, on gold and bonds so far.
Premiums aren't big enough to tempt me on GLD, TLT or similar
instruments.
Here
are a few etfs, current price and their 2016 ytd (dividends
excluded):
SLV
17.2% 15.46 silver
GLD
16.2% 117.92 gold
TLT
9.4% 131.88 20-year Treasury bonds
EEM
7.4% 34.57 Emerging markets
SPY
1.9% 207.78 S&P 500
IWM
-0.2% 112.45 Russell 2000
I
am right near the bottom at +1.3% for 2016, behind SPY, ahead of IWM,
missing the fast boats of bonds, and precious metals.
The big picture is okay. I had three bad months, now one good month, and I am back to a profit for the year, and right there with the major stock indexes. I have a lot of
dry powder, as I am starting to trade better. The big losers
in BA, FB, UA early in the year, are what dug me a deep
hole. Lately, what some see as speculative stocks: CMG, TSLA and VRX
have helped me climb out of the hole. I still see myself as a
cautious trader.
For
the astro people reading along, Mercury goes retrograde on April
28th. We will see if it marks a reversal, an acceleration, or nothing
this time around.
Big
earnings week coming up. The CBOE blog (link) has a list of some of the
optionable stocks reporting each week. So far the more interesting
candidates to me are:
Tue
before open: JNJ UNH
Wed
after close: SKX
Thu
after close: MSFT V
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