Saturday, February 18, 2017

Monthly: Half a loaf and TINA, 59-4 Grade B

The bull market roars ahead. SPY is up 5.2% for 2017. My trading account is up 3.7%, so I am lagging. IWM is up 3.2% so I am in the game. Overall, it feels like I left money on the table. I usually lag if there is a big upside move, so it is not unexpected.

Here are some etfs year to date, best to worst:

SLV +12.9% silver
EEM +9.7% Emerging market stocks

GLD +7.4% gold
SPY +5.2% U.S. large cap (SP500)

IWM +3.2 U.S. small cap (Russell 2000)
TLT +1.0 U.S. 20 year treasury

My trading account +3.7%. This remains the most hated bull market that I can remember. A lot of people are still nervous, many have sold or are still on the sidelines. This is not the sentiment at major market tops. A correction of 5% can happen at any time, but a bigger decline remains extremely unlikely.

Why is the market up? A lot of people shorted the market. There is also TINA, there is no alternative. With bonds underperforming, CDs still paying relatively low rates. People with money have to put it some where. A bit has been flowing in precious metals with gold, and silver among the best performers for calendar 2017.

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