Saturday, June 17, 2017

Monthly: 61-9 Grade C as tech falters

I count 61 winners, 9 losers for the June cycle, self-grade is C. Overall, a modest profit, even with some whopper losers in percentage terms. There were more than a few frustrating whipsaw moves, where I covered and then the underlying reversed. The tech sell off made for a difficult month. It could have been a lot worse. The AMZN merger with WFM set off more land mines for premium sellers. 
A few ETFs from best to worst for 2017:
EEM +17.7% emerging markets equity
GLD +8.9% gold
SPY +8.5% S&P 500, U.S. large cap
TLT +6.0% U.S. 20 year treasuries
SLV +4.5% silver
IWM +4.0% Russell 2000, U.S. small cap

My account is up +7.0%, lagging behind SPY, ahead of IWM. Note, the above numbers do not include dividends, which add about another 1% to SPY and a bit more to TLT.

Going forward, the bull market is intact. Again, signs of the top will be inverted yield curve, transports leading the first leg down, exuberant sentiment. Of these only the sentiment of stock market newsletters is in the red zone. Yields are getting there, but not yet inverted in the U.S. Transports are still okay. I am guessing there will be a steeper correction in late September, early October, but it is just a guess. Bear market? Don't see a bear market.

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