Saturday, January 12, 2019

Wins and losses no longer the emphasis

On Monday, the market runs too hot. I close several sold calls for losses. The straight up rally can be just as bad for strangle sellers, as a sharp decline. Netflix, Amazon, Apple, are the main culprits, but there are others. The good news is that I finish the week up over 2%, about the same as the increase in SPY.

I’ve shifted my focus to staying near delta neutral. I’m selling options closing in with higher deltas when necessary. I got an email saying my account was flagged because a 20% down move in the market would be very, very bad for me. Selling a lot of 10% probability puts, as was my preference would create huge downside risk.

My overall stance is a shift is away from counting wins and losses. Win percentage is only one metric, and while it can be useful, the emphasis is shifted towards net liquidating value, and risk.

Earnings season will soon be upon us. Netflix showed that big moves can happen outside of earnings. As always be careful out there.

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