Weekly: Crash helmet on

Monday felt like the prelude to a crash. When my account went to -10% for the day, I put on my crash helmet. I got stopped out on some positions (mental stops), and closed some more positions. The market didn’t crash on Tuesday. Instead, a massive three day rally got me all of the loss back and then some, even with a defensive stance (vs increasing risk, aka as gambling, to try and make back the huge loss).

Rule #1 is to live to trade another day. Even though the market was way oversold on Monday, I didn’t want to risk another big down day on Tuesday, that might have resulted in margin calls. A big gap down would have been especially difficult. So I took my lumps and regrouped. As it turned out, I rolled up with the rally. It felt like at least a short term low was in. I saw more than a few people online saying that they were cashing in, or getting out. Capitulation kind of behavior, with some almost proud to be 80% cash. A lot of people were like me, duck and cover. However, many are still in that mode, missing the massive rally off the lows.

I didn’t trade particularly well, but by taking the middle road and closing some positions at profit to mitigate risk, I had a positive week, despite near panic at the Monday lows.

Sat TSLA Oct26 300 calls assigned over the weekend. I sell shares at 300. I count this as a loss.

Here are the trades from a wild week (p=puts, c=calls, number near the end is price per contract).

Mon Another really bad day for me. Down 10% at the worst levels, I cover some positions, in the interest of self presentation. I am down approximately 20% for calendar October. 8% might be a whole year of premium selling in a low volatility environment. Well, we are not in Kansas any more. So I took my 8% hit. It is a frightening day, as I close some positions before they reach their stops. Again, at -10% for the day, it is time to save the ship.

Rule #1 Live to trade another day (yes, its worth repeating).

Cover AMZN Nov 1750 c 680 profit
Cover AMZN Nov9 1475 p 5080 huge loss

Cover SPY Nov 262 p 616 big loss
Cover TSLA Nov9 270 p 158 profit

Cover AMZN Nov 1400 p 2755 huge loss
Cover TSLA Nov 250 p 178 profit

Cover PANW Nov 180 p 830 huge loss
Cover NVDA Nov2 185 p 820 huge loss

Cover TSLA Nov23 285 p 575 profit
Cover TSLA Nov9 300 p 440 profit

Cover NFLX Nov290 p 16.70 huge loss

Buy TSLA shares at 344.58

Sell AMZN Nov9 1200 p 195
Sell TSLA Nov9 400 c 84

Roll AMZN Cover AMZN Dec 2000 c 349 profit
Sell AMZN Dec 1900 c 696

Sell AMZN Nov 1775 c 520

Sell AMZN Nov2 1750 c 90

Sell BA Dec 400 c 146

Sell AMZN Nov9 1800 c 255
Sell NFLX Nov 210 p 140

Sell AMZN Nov 1750 c 890
Sell TSLA Nov30 285 p 615

Sell AAPL Nov2 187.5 p 40
Sell TSLA Nov 300 p 585

Tue The market closes near its highs for the day. I climb out of the cellar of the -8% Monday with a +3% Tuesday.

Sell FB Nov2 119 p 41 pre-earnings
Sell TSLA Nov30 375 c 685 daytrade sell 675 profit

Sell AMZN Nov9 1750 c 275 daytrade sell 245 profit
Sell SPY Nov 239 p 63

Sell AMZN Nov2 1700 c 70
Sell TSLA Nov9 350 c 470

Sell SPG Nov 175 p 101
Sell NVDA Nov2 150 p 15

Sell TSLA Nov9 275 p 168
Sell TSLA Nov23 385 c 315
Sell TSLA Nov 390 c 170

Cover AMZN Nov 1775 c 355 profit

Wed Two up days in a row for the first time all month. With a 3.6% gain, during the past two days, I have almost made back the big loss on Monday.

Cover AMZN Nov 1875 c 168 profit
Cover AMZN Nov2 1750 c 34 profit

Cover TSLA Nov23 385 c 298 profit
Cover AMZN Nov9 1800 c 127 profit

Sell TSLA Dec 250 p 530

Sell TSLA Nov 295 p 750
Sell PAYC Nov 145 c 30

Sell SPY Nov23 240 p 39
Sell QQQ Nov30 150 p 68

Sell NFLX Nov23 250 p 242
Sell AMZN Nov23 1450 p 1345

Roll BA 129 credit: Cover BA Nov 300 p 60 profit
Sell BA Nov 325 p 198

Roll AMZN 179 credit: Cover AMZN Nov9 1200 p 50
Sell AMZN Nov9 1350 p 229

Sell SPY Nov30 242 p 77
Sell FB Dec 115 p 38

Sell MSFT Dec 90 p 65
Sell AMZN Nov 1300 p 325

Thu Third up day in a row. After the close Apple earnings disappoint. I cover some Amazon calls. After being given a reprieve on the decline, I don’t want to risk a big loss that could come with a fourth big up day.

Cover AMZN Nov2 1700 c 465 big loss
Cover AMZN Nov 1950 c 76 profit

Cover AMZN Nov2 1800 c 10 profit
Sell TSLA Nov9 305 p 197

Roll TSLA 485 credit:Cover TSLA Nov30 285 p 451 profit
Sell TSLA Dec 305 p 926

Sell SPY Nov 254 p 53

Roll AMZN 167 credit: Cover AMZN Nov9 1350 p 77

Sell AMZN Nov9 1450 p 244

Sell TSLA Nov23 280 p 303

Sell TSLA Nov 290 p 320

Sell TSLA Nov9 295 p 187

Fri Cover AMZN Dec 2300 c 91 profit
Cover SPG Dec 150 p 64 profit

Sell AMZN Nov23 2000 c 118
Sell AAPL Nov 230 c 29

Sell BRKB Dec 180 p 72

Sell SBUX Dec 55 p 22 earnings

Roll AMZN: Cover AMZN Nov 1300 p 72 profit
Sell AMZN Nov 1450 p 310

Roll BA: Cover BA Dec 295 p 112 profit
Sell BA Dec 330 p 364

Weekly: Last FAANG standing

What a crazy week! I lose 6% this week. Tesla then Amazon, then the rest of the market are the culprits. I am right around break even for the year. Trading activity doesn’t always mean profits. SPY is right near break even for the year as well. The good news is that I survive some unpleasant surprises. It could have been a lot, lot worse, given the risky nature of selling naked options.

Rule #1 Live to trade another day

The subject line is last FAANG standing. Right now it is Apple. The others: Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix all fell more than 20% from their highs. Apple reports soon. There are still a few stocks doing okay, such as Boeing, Microsoft, McDonalds. Banks have rolled over with the market. Most foreign markets are down for the year.

Mon Sell SPG Dec 140 p 60

Sell BRKB Dec 170 p 48
Sell COST Dec 195 p 84

Sell AXP Nov 95 p 25
Sell TSLA Nov2 350 c 40

Sell SPY Nov 288 c 28
Sell NFLX Nov9 380 c 97

Tue Another ball-buster day for me, down 2%. I get whipsawed out of two positions during the morning lows, then Tesla burns me bad. Noted short-seller Citron says they are now long TSLA. Ouch.

Cover IWM Nov 150 p 416 big loss

Cover SPY Oct26 272.5 p 396 big loss
Sell TSLA Nov 200 p 242

Sell TSLA Nov2 235 p 293
Sell NVDA Nov2 250 c 42

Sell COST Dec 260 c 48
Sell AAPL Nov 245 c 54

Sell BRKB Dec 230 c 51
Sell FB Nov 185 c 27

Sell AMZN Nov 2200 c 219
Sell NFLX Nov 400 c 45

Wed Bad turns into worse as I lose about 8% by the close. I take an additional hit after the close when Tesla reports good earnings.

Cover NVDA Oct26 210 p 615 big loss
Cover FB Oct26 150 p 272 big loss

Cover QQQ Nov 168 p 526 big loss
Cover SPY Nov 268 p 592 big loss

Sell AMZN Nov2 2050 c 239
Sell BRKB Nov 220 c 33

Sell QQQ Nov 184 c 25
Sell SPY Nov 285 c 45

Sell NVDA Nov2 240 c 40
Sell AMZN Dec 2300 c 261

After hours bot TSLA shares @316.75
another lot at 330.67

Yikes!!!!!!!

Thu Big rally day. I make back all of Wednesday’s loss. Then after hours, Alphabet and Amazon report poor earnings. We will see what Friday brings. I did a lot of Tesla trades. Mostly my timing was poor, but I survived the surprise earnings report (moved up by 2 weeks) and the big gap move. Even with poor execution, my middle road let me survive.

Cover QQQ Dec 193 c 27 profit
Cover NVDA Nov2 240 c 29 profit

Cover AMZN Nov 2200 c 190 profit
Cover AMZN Oct26 2250 c 05 profit

Cover TSLA Nov 375 c 225 daytrade profit
Cover TSLA Nov2 330 500 daytrade profit

Cover SPY Nov 285 c 33 profit
Cover QQQ Nov 185 c 19 profit

Roll TLSA for 141 credit Cover TSLA 225 p 200 profit
Sell TSLA 245 p 341

Roll NFLX for 55 credit Cover NFLX 400 c 26 profit
Sell NFLX 375 c 81

Sell TSLA Nov23 225 p 234

Sell TSLA Nov23 375 c 233
Sell TSLA Nov 360 c 305

Sell TSLA Oct26 335 c 59
Sell TSLA Nov9 340 c 505

Sell TSLA Nov 375 c 288
Sell TSLA Nov2 330 c 620

Fri Cover BRKB Nov 200 p 495 big loss
Cover NVDA Nov2 250 c 03 profit

Cover QQQ Oct26 165 p 136 loss
Sell TLSA Nov 250 p 254

Sell BRKB Nov 185 p 110
Sell AMZN Dec 2000 c 705

Sell SPG Dec 150 p 77
Sell QQQ Dec 190 c 25

Sell AMZN Nov2 1800 c 230
Sell BA Nov 400 c 80

Sell LOW Nov 105 c 28
Sell MSFT Nov 120 c 15

Sell NVDA Nov2 230 c 34
Sell NFLX Nov 360 c 110

Sell TSLA Nov2 285 p 150
Sell TSLA Nov 265 p 320

Sell BA Dec 295 p 213
Sell AMZN Nov2 1450 p 239

Sell TSLA Nov9 300 p 585
Cover TSLA Oct26 335 c 254 big loss

Roll TSLA 350 credit: Cover TSLA Nov 265 p
Sell TSLA Nov23 285 p

Roll TSLA 545 credit: Cover Nov23 245 p
Sell TSLA Nov30 275 p

Sell AMZN Nov9 1475 p 649

Sell TSLA Nov 270 p 310
Sell TSLA Nov30 385 c 395

Sell TLSA Nov 370 c 400
Cover AMZN Oct26 1600 p 107 profit

Sell TSLA Nov30 400 c 438
Sell AMZN Nov 1875 c 445

Monthly 81-9, Grade C-, weathering the storm.

I lose a bit over 5% this month. Grade C- because of the big loss. However, market conditions were difficult for many boats. I count 81 winners, 9 losers for the October option cycle.

Unfortunately, many of the losers were huge, and almost all the winners small or tiny. So despite a high win percentage, the losses out weigh the gains, and I have a negative month. Amazon, Facebook, Nvidia are some of the losers. For the most part, I stay within my rules. One winner was Tilray. Selling way, way otm options worked this time.

Here are some etfs year-to-date:
SPY +3.8% S&P 500 US large cap
IWM +0.6% Russell 2000 US small cap

GLD -6.2% gold
TLT -10.4% US Treasuries 20 year

SLV -14.1% silver
EEM -15.8% Emerging market equity

My account +6.2%. So respectable. It is telling that almost everything is down now. Only SPY has a reasonable return for the year. QQQ is not on the list, but is still up for the year.

I wish I knew what was coming next. The sentiment still doesn’t feel like a top, but corrections can happen at any time. This recent slide came on no real news. The reasons cited have been out there for months now. Netflix boomed higher on earnings day, and has given all that back. That is not bull market action, so caution is reasonable. That said, so many pundits and newbies seem obsessed with a crash, that a crash is extremely unlikely. What is more likely is the recent meat-grinder action where both bulls and bears might lose money, if they are positioned wrong.

Weekly: another frustrating week

Bulls and bears have things to be happy and sad about. A booming rally gives way to selling later in the week. Overall, the market moved higher, but coming off the big slide the prior week, it wasn’t as much as some had hoped. My week ends with frustration as my mental stop levels on Nvidia. I take more losses.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Markets fade into the close. A break even day for me.
Cover FB Oct26 175 c 05 for profit
Cover NVDA Nov2 300 c 04 for profit

Sell NVDA Oct26 265 c 44
Sell NVDA Oct26 270 c 38

Sell QQQ Oct26 182 c 25
Sell SPY Oct26 286 c 26

Tue The bull empire strikes back. A buying panic, with the market gaining strength all day long. I cover some calls, sell some puts. Take a small shot at Netflix pre-earnings. I am up about 3.7% today. Woohoo.

All these calls closed for profit:
Cover TSLA Nov 375 c 150
Cover SPY Nov 296 c 17

Cover AMZN Nov 2200 c 340
Cover SPY Oct26 288 c 19

Cover NVDA Oct26 270 c 28
Cover QQQ Nov 190 c 18

Cover FB Nov 190 c 30
Sell NVDA Oct26 210 p 51

Sell AMZN Oct 1650 p 80
Sell NFLX Nov 225 p 108

Sell TSLA Oct 245 p 31
Sell TSLA Oct26 230 p 93

Sell COST Nov 200 p 37
Sell AMZN Dec 1350 p 670

Sell IWM Dec 135 p 68
Sell QQQ Dec 148 p 89

Sell SPY Dec 240 p 129
Sell UNH Nov 240 p 57

Wed Roll NFLX for 123 credit: Cover NFLX Nov 225 p 32 profit
Sell NFLX Nov 290 p 155
Sell UNH Nov 290 c 18

Thu The bears get a day.
Cover AMZN Oct 1650 p 72 for profit
Cover AMZN Oct 2300 c 167 for profit
Cover AMZN Oct26 2050 c 310 for profit

Sell AMZN Dec 2500 c 153
Sell NFLX Nov 425 c 59

Sell NVDA Nov2 275 c 27
Sell IWM Dec 175 c 19

Sell SPY Dec 300 c 38
Sell QQQ Dec 193 c 39

Sell TLRY Nov 310 c 40
Sell GOOGL Nov 1300 c 150

Fri My stops get run on Nvidia.
Cover TSLA Oct26 350 c 05 profit
Cover NVDA Oct 230 p 218 loss
Cover NVDA Nov2 230 p 930 big loss

Sell NVDA Nov2 185 p 80
Sell PYPL Nov 70 p 22 earnings
Sell NFLX Nov2 390 c 34

Weekly: Hurricane damage

First of all, thoughts and prayers for all those that suffered during the massive hurricane. Those kind of life changing events make stock market gyrations seem small in comparison. That said, it was a market storm this week. By the close Thursday wiped away all my gains for 2018. I take the biggest dollar loss in one transaction, in quite some time covering some sold Amazon puts for a 1000% loss on a large dollar amount.

Choose whatever cliché or metaphor you want. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Picking up nickels in front of a steam roller, and getting flattened. Friday’s relief rally places me back in the plus column for 2018, but overall down about 5% for the week. I am sure a few accounts got blown up by the market action. On the Internet, it tends to be winners (and liars) that tell tales.

Here are the trades for a truly ugly week for my account (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Columbus Day means bond markets are closed.
Mon Sell ABMD Oct 500 c 60

Sell BRKB Nov 240 c 35
Sell FB Nov 190 c 53

Sell TSLA Nov 350 c 205
Sell AMZN Oct 2050 c 270

Tue Cover BABA Oct 172.5 c 05 for profit
Sell BABA Nov 185 c 39

Sell TGT Nov 75 p 19
Sell AMZN Nov 1400 p 414

Sell FB Nov 125 p 36
Sell LOW Nov 90 p 23

Wed A hard down day. I lose 8%+, one of the worst days of the year. One of the worst in a while. Most of the year’s gains are now gone. I am still up for 2018, but not by much. Three legs breach the mental stop levels of the option price, several more are threatened.

Cover PAYC Oct 130 p 360 big loss

Cover FB Oct 155 p 320 big loss

Cover FB Oct 177.5 c 05 small profit

Cover PYPL Oct 77.5 p 263 big loss

Cover AMZN Oct 2500 c 05 for profit

Cover GOOGL Oct 1250 c 20 for profit

Sell QQQ Oct 184 c 14

Sell SPY Oct 293 c 14

Sell TSLA Oct 310 c 63

Sell FB Oct26 175 c 22
Sell AMZN Nov 2300 c 440

Sell FB Nov2 185 c 39
Sell NVDA Nov2 300 c 36

Sell AMZN Oct26 2150 c 375
Sell PANW nov 250 c 41

Sell PYPL Nov 95 c 13
Sell SPY Nov 296 c 47

Sell AAPL Oct26 242.5 c 24
Sell QQQ Nov 190 c 30

Sell GOOGL Nov 1375 c 81
Sell AMZN Nov 2200 c 655

Thu I lose another 2.9%. I am now negative for 2018. I book many more losses. Schaeffer’s Research says 75% chance that the market rebounds. That leaves 25% chance for more downside. With naked puts, I can’t take that chance.

Cover GRUB Oct 115 p 400 for big loss
Cover SPY Oct12 275 p 228 for big loss
Cover IWM Oct 155 p 253 for big loss
Cover AMZN Oct26 2150 c 230 for small daytrade profit
Cover AMZN Oct 1750 p 6210 whopper loss

Sell SPY Oct26 288 c 34
Sell QQQ Nov 185 c 40

Sell NVDA Nov 275 c 40
Sell PAYC Nov 175 c 26

Sell BRKB Oct 220 c 25
Sell NVDA Oct 272.5 c 15

Sell IWM Nov 170 c 15
Sell AMZN Oct26 2050 c 525

Fri No trades. My account gains about 5.7% on this relief rally. Of course, I would have been better off closing some of the losers after the bounce. If I knew better, I’d do better. Hindsight is 20-20. Best to follow the plan in place during turbulent times. Rule #1 Live to trade another day. One way I do that is to take losses.

Weekly: Two hard down days AMZN FB TSLA drop

I lose about 1.8% for the week. Tesla did most of the damage. Facebook, Amazon also were red factors. Higher yields on Treasury bonds are widely cited as a factor. It is also October during a mid-term electdion year, and markets are often turbulent in that time frame.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Tesla and Tilray leap higher. I adjust by selling more puts
Sell TLRY Nov 50 p 70

Sell TSLA Nov 225 p 550
Sell TSLA Oct 240 p 184

Sell SPY Nov 268 p 69
Sell QQQ Nov 168 p 64

Tue I reduce delta in Facebook as it continues to fall.

Sell FB Oct26 180 c 30

Sell FB Oct 177.5 c 25

Sell PYPL Nov 70 p 19
Sell MSFT Nov 97.5 p 28

Wed Sell AAPL Nov 195 p 59
Sell TSLA Nov 420 c 75
Sell TLRY Nov 500 c 40

Thu Down dog kind of day. I take on some water. Mostly, I sell calls. I do dip my toe on the long side by selling puts on BABA and NVDA.

Cover TSLA Nov 420 c 52 for profit.
Sell BABA Nov 125 p 58

Sell SPG Nov 190 c 20
Sell NVDA Nov 230 p 56

Sell AMZN Oct 2225 c 99
Sell TSLA Nov 400 c 87

Sell TSLA Oct 350 c 71
Sell SPY Oct26 298c 20

Sell FB Nov 200 c 38
Sell AMZN Nov 2400 c 480

Fri Another mostly down day, with Tesla being hit hard. I sell a bunch of out of the money calls.

Sell COST Nov 250 c 20
Sell MSFT Nov 130 c 12

Sell BA Oct 420 c 29
Sell NVDA Oct 300 c 35

Sell BABA Oct 172.5 c 15
Sell AAPL Nov 260 c 49

Sell IWM Nov 175 c 16
Sell AMZN Oct26 2250 c 320

Sell GOOGL Oct 1250 c 125
Sell FB Oct 172.5 c 28

Sell QQQ Nov 193 c 34
Sell QQQ Oct26 190 c 23

Sell TSLA Nov 375 c 157
Sell TSLA Oct 325 c 85

Weekly: Faceplant and Musk rat FB TSLA

Facebook and Tesla tumble on Friday on news. FB on a data breech, TSLA on CEO Elon Musk being charged by the SEC on securities fraud for his tweets about taking the company private.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Third week option expiration tends to free up a lot of buying power. I slowly put it to work.
Sell TSLA Oct12 220 p 133
Sell SPG Nov 150 p 44

Sell QQQ Oct26 165 p 39
Sell AAPL Oct26 200 p 88

Sell AMZN Oct 2250 c 78
Sell TLRY Oct 350 c 60
Tue Sell TLRY Oct 310 c 65
Sell BRKB Nov 200 p 78
Sell ABMD Oct 360 p 150

Sell UAL Nov 70 p 29
Sell FB Oct 140 p 15

Sell FB Oct 182.5 c 19
Sell FB Oct 145 p 23

Wed Sell GOOGL Nov 950 p 200
Sell PANW Nov 180 p 56

Sell NFLX Oct 500 c 45
Sell FB Oct26 150 p 57

Sell PAYC Nov 120 p 85
Sell BA Nov 300 p 89
Thu Cover GOOGL Oct 1000 p 50 for profit
Cover GOOGL Oct 1300 c 175 for loss
Turned out to be relatively poor timing on closing the straddle, but an overall profit on the two positions while reducing risk.

Sell FB Oct 155 p 39
Sell AMZN Oct26 1600 p 340

Fri Tesla and Facebook tumble on news. I sell calls to offset sold puts, but paper losses are a plenty.
Sell FB Oct26 190 c 17

Sell TSLA Oct05 320 c 39
Sell TSLA Oct 350 c 135

Monthly: 66-4 grade B+, TLRY TSLA and landmines

SPY moves to all time record highs. I count 66 winners 4 losers for the September option cycle. Grade is B+. TSLA was the biggest loser this month. Before new readers get excited about the high win percentage, understand that I have been especially cautious. I am selling options way, way out of the money. Often the probability going in is 92% or higher at entry. So the 94% win rate is about as expected.

Personally, moving was the big story these past few weeks. The move took up a lot of my time and energy. I will be continue to be time pressured during the fall. I will try to keep up with the blog as best I can.

Here are a few etfs year-to-date:

IWM +11.8% Russell 2000 US small cap stocks
SPY +9.8% S&P 500 US large cap stocks

TLT -7.7% US 20-year treasuries
GLD -8.2% gold

EEM -8.3% Emerging market stocks
SLV -15.9% silver

My account up about 12.5% for the year. I am ahead of SPY and IWM. I don’t include QQQ in the etf summary, but am a bit behind that. If at the start of the year, someone offered me up 12%, I’d take that. I am not a spring chicken, so need to be more conservative than a young person with a high savings rate.

As for the market, new highs, new highs, more new new highs. It is still a bull market. Perhaps the most hated bull market of all time. Newbies and veterans keep looking for a crash. To be sure, some valuation metrics such as the Schiller PE10, and GDP vs. total US market cap are at danger levels. The yield curve is flattening, perhaps on its way to inversion. However, all three of those are not timing indicators. To me, it means to stay cautious because a correction can happen at any time.

Weekly: Tilray and the ghost

TLRY had a wild ride. Marked to the market mid, I am in the red, but I am fairly confident that all the options I sold will come in at a profit.

The ghost involves a back office glitch on Thursday morning, causing the margin requirement to be erroneously reported for the first 45 minutes of trading. I wasn’t at a place where I could call, so I closed some profitable positions. When in doubt get out.

Mon Amazon leads a tech sell off. I lose about 1.7% today. Ouch. That’s a really bad day, considering SPY is down 0.56%. I sell calls to reduce my delta. I go way otm, because I fear a snap back rally.

Sell AMZN Oct 2200 c 490
Sell AMZN Sep28 2100 c 278

Sell AAPL Oct5 245 c 14
Sell GOOGL Oct 1300 c 150

Tue I bounce back, recovering all of Monday’s losses.
Cover AMZN Sep28 2100 c 225 for a nice one-day profit

Sell PYPL Oct 77.5 p 21
Sell TSLA Oct5 190 p 127

Sell NFLX Oct 280 p 142
Sell TLRY Oct 40 p 70

Wed Cover GOOGL Sep 1150 p 390 for profit
I took the money and ran after being deep in the red at times on the above put. Had I waited until the close, the put is 118 mid. Ouch.

Tilray has the wildest day imaginable, trading as high as 300, as low as 162, at least five trading halts for volatility.
Sell TLRY Oct 15 p 15

Sell GOOGL Oct 1000 p 190
Sell AMZN Sep28 2110 c 88

Thu A back office glitch causes the margin requirements on my open Amazon positions to skyrocket for the first 45 minutes of trading. Not being in a place to call and question, I close a few positions for profit. When in doubt get out, especially if I can book profits. This is at least the second time I’ve seen this kind of glitch. The other time was after the market close. During trading hours, it seems much scarier.

All profits:
Cover AMZN Sep 2200 c 02
Cover AMZN Oct 2200 c 350
Cover AMZN Sep28 2300 c 22
Cover GOOGL Sep 1300 c 05

Tilray naked calls? The catch is what seems like an absurd 600 strike price. Then again 300 seemed absurd a week ago, and it touched that. I’ll leave the more risky, more profitable plays for the nimble traders.

Sell TLRY Oct 600 c 170
Sell GOOGL Sep28 1075 p 75

Fri Sell SPY Oct26 272.5 p 50

Weekly: mild up week

A mild up week, with SPY challenging its old highs. No major hits or misses for me this week. The moving saga continues. Other parts of my life are also demanding more time, so less time for trading.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Cover AAPL Oct 275 c 04 for profit
Sell AAPL Oct 250 c 34
Sell TSLA Sep28 190 p 147
Sell AMZN Sep 2175 c 93

Wed Sell MU Sep 35 p 23
Sell NFLX Sep28 310 p 55
Sell PANW Oct 190 p 35

Thu Rally day. I add long delta.
Sell AAPL Oct5 195 p 27

Sell PAYC Oct 130 p 45
Sell GRUB Oct 115 p 55

Sell IWM Oct5 157.5 p 20
Sell QQQ Oct5 170 p 30

Sell SPY Oct12 275 p 57

Fri Cover BA Sep 275 p 02 profit
Sell BA Oct 300 p 42

Sell NVDA strangles: Sell NVDA Oct 325 c 29
Sell NVDA Oct 230 p 73

Weekly: stress test, down 3%

A stressful week for me. This is an abbreviated post because I’m moving. So I won’t detail the trades. Moving is stressful enough, but the market made for a lot more stress.

I closed positions in Facebook and Tesla for huge losses. Declines in Alphabet aka Google, and Amazon added to the red ink. Overall down about 3% for my account. My gains for the year are around 8% after this horrid week.

I haven’t met anyone that enjoys moving. Hopefully, I’ll get done soon, but it may be a few more weeks of stress. Cheers.

Weekly: Chipotle sours my week

CMG was the big stinker this week. A downgrade, and other news drops Chipotle stock. I take a big loss on one leg as it breaches my mental stop level. Overall, I end the mostly quiet week with a miniscule loss. AMZN NFLX run too hot for my taste, causing some legs to drift into the red.

September/October can be treacherous months in the market. However, sentiment continues to be promising, with very little public chatter about the stock market at social gatherings, and newbie after newbie asking about crash scenarios online. While no indicator is 100%, sentiment at major market tops tends have a lot of people talking about the market, and a lot of newbies dreaming of trading for a living.

A lot of time and energy is being taken up by my upcoming move, so I haven’t been as active in the markets. I did open new long positions in risky stocks such as PAYC SPNK TLRY. Enjoy the long weekend.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Records highs. The most hated bull market in history continues to roll.

Sell SPLK Sep 105 p 51
Sell TSLA Sep 400 c 49

Sell PAYC Sep 135 p 60
Sell CMG Sep 565 c 75

Sell SPY Oct5 272.5 p 77
Sell QQQ Sep28 170 p 48

Sell AMZN Sep 2200 c 60
Sell AMZN Oct 1525 p 196

Tue BestBuy down on earnings.
Sell BBY Sep 85 c 15 turning position into a strangle

Sell SPY Sep 275 p 42
Sell QQQ Sep 173 p 40

Wed Tilray up on earnings
Sell TLRY Sep 33 p 25
Sell SPY Nov 262 p 126

Sell QQQ Oct 165 p 50
Sell IWM Sep28 162 p 41

Sell AMZN Sep28 1700 p 154
Sell AAPL Oct 195 p 60

Sell TLRY Sep 35 p 50
Sell TSLA Sep28 400 c

Thu Sell TGT Oct 75 p 18
Sell QQQ Nov 160 p 76
Sell IWM Nov 150 p 57

Fri Chipotle continues lower. I take a big loss on one leg
Cover CMG Sep 475 p 1240 big loss
Cover CMG Sep 600 c 05 profit
Cover SPY Aug31 292 c 03 profit

Sell SPY Oct 307 c 17
Sell NFLX Sep 310 p 30
Sell CMG Sep 430 p 145

Weekly: New all time highs

Most of US stock indexes record new all time highs. The advance/decline line, transports confirm the high. The bearish case includes valuations, narrowing leadership. However, the tale of the tape is bullish. Don’t fight the tape. This week new longs include: TGT LOW JWM PANW TWLO. I sell way out of the money puts. My thinking is that any decline is likely to be contained to 10%.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Tue New all time high for SPY
Sell SPY Sep28 270 p 87

Sell BRKB Oct 190 p 58
Sell AAPL Sep 190 p 37

Sell JWM Oct 50 p 33
Sell SPG Oct 160 p 53

Sell TGT Sep 72.5 p 32 pre-earnings
Sell UNH Sep 240 p 53

Wed Target and Lowes go up on earnings
Sell TGT Sep 77.5 p 17

Sell LOW Sep 95 p 23
Sell IWM Oct 155 p 63

Sell QQQ Oct 160 p 78
Sell BBY Sep 65 p 19

Roll CMG for 195 credit: Cover Sep 410 p for profit
Sell CMG Sep 475 p 229

Thu I sell some puts way, way out of the money. The trade off is high probability, for tiny reward, relatively large risk. My thinking is that any new decline will likely be contained at 10%, so want to sell at least 10% out of the money.

Sell PANW Sep 180 p 87
Sell GRUB Sep 115 p 45

Sell AMZN Sep28 1500 p 109
Sell HON Sep 145 p 23

Fri Sell TWLO Sep 65 p 31
Sell SPY Oct 265 p 98
Sell NFLX Sep 300 p 51

Monthly: Loserville 70-4 grade C-

I lose a little over 1% for the August option cycle. I count 70 winners 4 losers, which sounds great until you hear the size of the losses. I get whipsawed in Chipotle, taking a 2000% loss on one leg

Here are some etfs best to worst, 2018 ytd performance:

IWM +10.5% Russell 2000, US small cap
SPY +7.2% S&P 500 US large cap

TLT -4.6% US 20-year Treasuries
GLD - 9.3% gold

EEM -10.4% emerging markets equities
SLV -12.9% silver

My account +10.8%. So I gave a little back this month, but am still having a decent year. It is telling that the US stock market is going up almost alone. Many foreign markets are in correction mode, some even in bear markets.

I confess to getting nervous on expiration Friday as many stocks moved lower in the morning. After the recent big losses, I took profits instead of waiting it out on expiration day.

Rule #1 remains: Live to trade another day.

Sometimes that translates into reducing risk after taking some big hits. Reversion to the mean often works, but when it fails, and there is a trending move, those whopper losers can zap an account. I took another 20x loss in sold Chipotle calls, only to see CMG whipsaw back down the next day on a food scare. Markets can be perverse like that.

I plan to be moving soon, so while I will try to keep the blog up to date, posts may be spotty, late perhaps abbreviated. I have yet to meet the person that enjoys moving. Cheers.

Weekly: Losers CMG FB TSLA

I take big losses in Chipotle, Facebook and Tesla. It is a painful week. Every day seems to bring another hit. I am down about 1.1% for the week.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Sell TSLA Sep 435 c 87
Sell SYY Nov 60 p 21 new long

Wed A really bad day for me, down almost 2%. Chipotle rallies and the rest of the market sells off. I close one CMG leg for a 20x loss. I reduce risk by closing a few trades for profit
Cover CMG Sep 520 c 2180 about a 2000% loss

These are all closed for profit
Cover GOOGL 1300 c 05
Cover FB Sep 155 p 54

Cover QQQ Sep 160 p 54
Cover SPY Sep7 261 p 53
Cover BA Aug 320 p 56

Sell CMG Sep 610 c 210
Sell NFLX Sep 405 c 31
Sell GOOGL Sep 1390 c 105

Thu New long in Walmart on earnings news. Chipotle falls on food news. Facebook declines triggering my mental stop loss on one leg. I end the day with a gain +0.5%.

Roll CMG: Cover CMG Sep 610 c 160 for profit
Sell CMG Sep 620 c 100 cover after news same day 45 for profit

Sell WMT Sep 90 p 20
Sell COST Sep 200 p 40

Sell JPM Sep 105 p 23
Sell PYPL Sep 75 p 23

Chipotle lower after food news
Cover CMG Sep 435 p 215 for profit
Sell CMG Sep 600 c 90

Facebook lower, triggering my mental stop level
Cover FB Aug 175 p 151 for big loss

Roll: Cover FB Sep 220 c 05 profit
Sell FB Sep 205 c 17

Fri I get nervous in the morning, and close out a bunch of trades for profit. Telsa tumbles on news.

Cover TSLA Aug 295 p 118 for profit
Cover TSLA Sep 200 p 315 for profit
Cover GOOGL 1185 p 30 profit

Cover NFLX Aug 310 p 57 breakeven
Cover FB Sep 145 p 33 profit

Sell TSLA Aug31 425 c 24

Tesla and Turkey

Tesla and Turkey dominate the news. TSLA CEO Elon Musk tweets that the company may go private at $420 a share. The stock booms higher. On Friday, news from Turkey sent the entire market lower. I escape with tiny gains for the week.

I plan to move soon, so updates may be delayed and/or abbreviated. Thank you to all the dedicated readers.

Mon Upside bias continues. AMZN BRKB CMG FB are among stocks moving up this morning.

Sell CMG Aug 430 p 45
Sell AMZN Sep 1550 p 339

Sell SPY Sep14 267 p 64
Sell QQQ Sep14 165 p 56

Sell NFLX Sep 275 p 53
Sell IWM Sep14 153 p 44

Sell FB Sep 165 p 98
Sell BRKB Sep 190 p 43

Cover FB Aug 200 c 24 for profit
Cover FB Sep 215 c 35 for profit

Tue Elon Musk threatens to take Tesla private at $420, causing a massive short squeeze.

Sell GOOGL Sep 1150 p 480
Sell FB Aug 175 p 25

Sell TSLA Sep 270 p 178

Wed Roll CMG 175 credit: Cover CMG Sep 395 p for profit
Sell CMG Sep 435 p 238

Sell TSLA Sep 450 c 117

Sell SPY Sep 268 p 75

Sell QQQ Sep 168 p 64

Fri Cover SPY Sep 263 p 75 for profit
Sell FB Sep 210 c 28

Weekly: Whipsaw on FB

I get whipsawed on Facebook as it breaks 170 to the downside on Monday. I cover, then it rebounds to close the week around 178. These things happen. The good news is a profitable week, after a rough two week while I was away. As for the rest of the week, I make adjustments as stocks move around. Tesla booms higher after its earnings. Chipotle has another food scare then recovers.

Mon Facebook moves lower again. I take some profits and a couple of big losses.

Cover FB 170 p 480 big loss
Cover FB Sep 170 p 720 big loss

Cover QQQ Aug 163 p 47 profit
Cover QQQ Aug24 163 p 73 profit

Cover SPY Sep 255 p 88 profit
Cover TSLA Aug 225 p 263 profit

Cover SPY Aug24 260 p 41 profit
Sell GOOGL Aug 1330 c 202

Sell SPY Aug31 292 c 19
Sell NFLX Aug 395 c 47

Sell GRUB Aug 145 c 25
Sell FB Sep 135 p 25

Tue Chipotle has another food scare.
Sell CMG Sep 520 c 112

Wed Apple up on earnings, close to $1 trillion market cap.
Cover FB Sep 205 c 46 profit
Sell AAPL Sep 170 p 31

Thu Tesla booms higher. The DJIA moves lower in the morning, then rallies off its lows.

Roll GOOGL155 credit Cover GOOGL Aug 1330 c 79 profit
Sell GOOGL Aug 1300 c 234

Sell QQQ Sep 160 p 64
Sell SPY Sep7 261 p 58

Sell TSLA Aug 295 p 141

Fri Sell FB Sep 155 p 72
Sell CMG Sep 410 p 225