2008 Q4 GDP (Gross Domestic product) comes in weak. The stock market drops at the open and SPY breaks its November lows. We will see if there is a close below the lows.
It is not time to be the hero. Sentiment remains relatively complacent. The decline remains orderly with some stocks still showing strength. Valuation is difficult because what is reported on balance sheets is only part of the story. Liquidation value is even more difficult because of the credit environment.
For folks that have little exposure, this isn't a bad time to start edging in. For folks that never sold and are still 100% in, selling a small fraction would be a good way to go. For most people, all-in or all-out investment decisions usually turn out to be bad ones.
I rarely talk about my long term investments here because this is a trading blog. I have a small percentage of assets in stock ETFs for the long term. Like most stock investors, I am taking a terrible beating on those holdings. I am also adding more every week to a stock mutual fund in my IRA account in a steady manner. Lower prices mean I get to buy more cheaper. The dollar amounts and asset allocation percentages are relatively small.
I am looking for a sentiment fear peak to look to increase my long term exposure to stocks. It isn't here yet. Right now, it doesn't look close. I also have that gold/silver insurance policy that I believe everyone should have (a small percentage of net worth in hard assets that is never touched).
No trading positions.
Chicken sign still up (as opposed to a bull or bear)
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