For whatever reasons, today's trading has me thinking about this old movie (Wikipedia link). The question is, "will I be able to find the big W?" Stay tuned.
The SPY Feb 75 puts I recently closed out would have been profitable had I held until expiration, but certainly would have been a scary ride. Chart support at SPY 75 held for today at least.
Gold makes another recovery high. Best case scenario for long term gold bulls would be a basing period of two months or more, followed by a parabolic up move on huge volume.
Going forward, the stock market almanac leans bullish towards the end of February and early March. Some stocks such as PCLN are showing strength. The "chicken sign" (as opposed to bull or bear) is still up for this blog.
So far I've had two modest losing trades for 2009. As always, it could be better, could be worse (a lot worse). I remind myself that two small losers isn't bad considering the beating the stock market has taken, and trades I typically do. Sure there are a few folks making money by aggressively shorting and buying puts, but a much larger group of traders and investors are taking huge losses with each leg down.
One measurement would be to take the width of the recent SPY range and then project that as the move down. A look at the 3 month SPY chart (link) says 80 to 92 is the recent range, 12 points from 80 brings a target of SPY 68. An inexact target to be sure, but it is one look at it.
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