Lower lows means the bears are still in the captain's chair even though SPY eeks out a gain on Friday. We did get a decent morning rally, likely due to short covering, then the seemingly relentless tide of selling came back. The strength into the close might again be short covering. Shorts had a huge money making week, so some may want to cash some chips and celebrate the weekend.
To my mind, there are so many cross currents in the market, so little clarity. Yes, the nimble and the bold (and the lucky) can make money, but I am neither nimble nor bold. The not so nimble, and the foolish can lose their shirts.
The prior low on SPY didn't hold, so that is bearish. There is enough energy for a huge stock market rally winding and winding like a spring. So far it is all potential energy. If I miss a rally, so be it, I'll live another day. Compare that to many would-be market heroes and TV personalities that have called a dozen market bottoms since 2009 started and have huge losses to show for their efforts.
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