Thursday, March 05, 2009

Sell AZO plus coffee shop predictions

Sell AZO via covering short Mar 125 puts
Stock market is in full melt down mode as I type, making new lows yet again. I step aside and get out with a breakeven profit (commissions are more than my profit).

Friday may bring a big rally on the employment report, but readers know my rule: "Never let a profit turn into a loss," especially after a losing streak.

I was at a coffee shop and heard two predictions on the stock market. For three years from now, one predicted Dow 12000, the other said 15000. I didn't offer my extremely gloomy numbers that I recently wrote about (3000 Dow), not wanting to sour the mood. This story does not reassure me because if means there are still more investors to sell. If I had to bet 12000 vs. 4000 Dow in March 2012, I would say the odds are higher for 4000.

Keep in mind, that I generally avoid making predictions. I see predictions more as entertainment than as useful for trading. I usually look for a move, and trade the reaction from that move, instead of trying to predict.

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