Monday, September 19, 2011

Non-event events, is Greece next?

The one sentence cliche version of this post is "buy the rumor sell the news."

Some recent non-event events were the S&P downgrade of the U.S. rating, the resignation of Apple CEO Steve Jobs. To make it more clear, the possibility of these events happening were brought up for many years, as big reasons to avoid certain markets. In the case of the U.S. debt rating, avoiding long term treasuries, and avoiding AAPL for Jobs. To the consternation of bears everywhere when the news broke, both times mostly out of a clear blue sky with little warning, the market reaction lasted for a few hours, perhaps a day. After that powerful bull rallies rolled forth.

Many fear the possibility of default in Greece. One difference, is a default would be widely telegraphed, compared to the S&P downgrade, or the Steve Jobs retirement. Could Greece be a third news event that has markets react opposite to what bearish traders hope for? We won't know until the event actually occurs, but be prepared for that that possibility. Sometimes a news event is a non-event.

Wild markets today. I am surprised at the rally off the lows for stocks (SPY).

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