Sunday, September 25, 2011

Storytime: Coleco, RIMM, and Silver

I have some time this morning and a story comes to mind. When I was a young cub, I worked with another young man who invested all his money in Coleco. Old timers might remember the Coleco Adam, a highly hyped computer in the 1980s that was supposed to be the next big thing. Other computers from that era include the Commodore 64, Atari 800, Apple II. My buddy was so sure of this that he bought Coleco stock at full margin.

The stock cracked, and to meet the margin call, the guy borrowed money from his mom. Eventually Coleco went belly up and all the money was lost, 100% of the invested money, plus the loan from mom. My buddy had to eat bag lunches for years to pay that loan back.

Fast forward to more recent history and Research in Motion RIMM. Similar events seem to be unfolding, and the best hope might be a buy out. The core business of Blackberries is fading and the company no longer seems to have ability to compete against Apple, Google, Microsoft and others.

I threw silver into the subject line because that market has that feel to it. Too many little fish are in the net at higher prices. The bulls I see remain defiant and confident in the face of a full blown crash. That kind of sentiment tends to mean that more pain. Obviously silver won't go to zero, like Coleco did, or RIMM might, but a lot more pain may be in store for all those unrepentant bulls. Silver is a tiny cap market so is subject to wild swings and more prone to manipulation than other markets.

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