Sunday, April 23, 2017

Monthly: Landmines GS TSLA, 42-3 Grade C+

It was a stress filled month. I count 42 winners, 3 losers, which sounds good on the surface. However, the three losers included two 2000%+ losers in Tesla (as measured by the premium collected) losers and big loss on one leg in Goldman. Had I held until expiration, two would have been smaller losers, one would have come back to profit. My self grade is another C+. C'est la vie.

I track a few etfs, here is the etf summary best to worst for calendar 2017

SLV +12.6% silver
EEM +12.2% emerging markets equity
GLD +11.6% gold
SPY +4.9% S&P 500, U.S. large cap
TLT +3.7% U.S. 20 year treasuries
IWM +1.8% Russell 2000, U.S. small cap
My account is at +4.6%, which is slightly behind buy and hold of SPY (SPY would have another +0.5% from dividends). So it isn't all bad, but I can do better.

I remain cautiously bullish. BRKB tends to dip ahead of the May 13th annual meeting, and rally afterwards. The overall market remains positive, though the rocket ahead pace from earlier in the year seems to be a thing of the past. While Market Vane investment advisors remain extremely bullish, AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment is neutral. Anecdotal chatter remains neutral. The stock market is not a popular topic of discussion.
Technicals look good. Fundmentals continue to unfold during earnings season. This week, several market leaders report, and are big enought to help or hinder the overall market.

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