I mostly match the gains in SPY this
month, up a bit over 3%. Like SPY, my trading account reached new
record highs.
Year to date returns (dividends not included for etfs):
QQQ +22.2% Nasdaq 100, mostly tech
SPY +l7.6% S&P 500 US large caps
IWM +15.0% Russell 2000 US small caps
EEM +9.5% Emerging market equities
GLD +8.8% Gold
TLT +8.2% US 20-year Treasury bonds
SLV -1.1% silver
My account up 25.2% for 2019. Yippee! Let the good times roll. Gold accelerated to the upside. Bonds have had a good year. Quantitative easing will tend to do this, inflate almost all asset classes.
The zombie bull continues forward. There are signs of a top, as I wrote in last week’s post. The inverted yield curve, CAPE and Buffett valuation indicators, speculative IPO market, more people wanting to go all in on leverage, a person that never did much with stocks wants in, after decades of ignoring the stock market.
TINA (there is no alternative) may be the strongest argument for the bulls. Sub 2% 10-year bond yields, most other major markets, Japan, Germany, China, have serious structural problems. There still are a large contingent of scaredy cats waiting for the US stock market to drop. Some have been waiting a while. Others cashed in after a strong first quarter in 2019.
I don’t have any great insight as to direction. I continue to be cautiously bullish, slightly delta positive on most underlyings. Biggest winners in 2019, continue to be AMZN and TSLA. Biggest loser is still BA. I continue to roll up, roll down as the market fluctuates, trying to stay near the target delta. This month, buying at the money calls was often the best way to rebalance after a big gap up. Call buying had mixed results, but overall a nicely positive month. Up more than 3% in a month is a good month.
I made small forays into BYND, CAT DE WMT, mostly for profit. I got burned by CRM. I covered many sold calls for losses during the Powell fueled rally, staying slightly delta positive on most underlyings. As cautious as I have been, it is a bit surprising that I am keeping up with the advance. As long as there are green plus signs, I’m not going to change much. Especially because I feel like I am being relatively cautious.
Year to date returns (dividends not included for etfs):
QQQ +22.2% Nasdaq 100, mostly tech
SPY +l7.6% S&P 500 US large caps
IWM +15.0% Russell 2000 US small caps
EEM +9.5% Emerging market equities
GLD +8.8% Gold
TLT +8.2% US 20-year Treasury bonds
SLV -1.1% silver
My account up 25.2% for 2019. Yippee! Let the good times roll. Gold accelerated to the upside. Bonds have had a good year. Quantitative easing will tend to do this, inflate almost all asset classes.
The zombie bull continues forward. There are signs of a top, as I wrote in last week’s post. The inverted yield curve, CAPE and Buffett valuation indicators, speculative IPO market, more people wanting to go all in on leverage, a person that never did much with stocks wants in, after decades of ignoring the stock market.
TINA (there is no alternative) may be the strongest argument for the bulls. Sub 2% 10-year bond yields, most other major markets, Japan, Germany, China, have serious structural problems. There still are a large contingent of scaredy cats waiting for the US stock market to drop. Some have been waiting a while. Others cashed in after a strong first quarter in 2019.
I don’t have any great insight as to direction. I continue to be cautiously bullish, slightly delta positive on most underlyings. Biggest winners in 2019, continue to be AMZN and TSLA. Biggest loser is still BA. I continue to roll up, roll down as the market fluctuates, trying to stay near the target delta. This month, buying at the money calls was often the best way to rebalance after a big gap up. Call buying had mixed results, but overall a nicely positive month. Up more than 3% in a month is a good month.
I made small forays into BYND, CAT DE WMT, mostly for profit. I got burned by CRM. I covered many sold calls for losses during the Powell fueled rally, staying slightly delta positive on most underlyings. As cautious as I have been, it is a bit surprising that I am keeping up with the advance. As long as there are green plus signs, I’m not going to change much. Especially because I feel like I am being relatively cautious.
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