Sunday, June 30, 2019

Weekly: more ratios, another warning sign

This week I did a call ratio with SPY at 292.6 or so:
buy SPY Jul 292 calls
sell 3x SPY Jul 301 calls
for about a $150 per unit debit. Best case is a rally up to 300 by July expiration. Worst case is a runaway rally. A flat or down market means the debit is lost.

I attended the local CANSLIM meetup. One of the long time attendees announced his retirement from his fully tenured professorship, to do stock trading full time. Yikes. He looked like he was about 50 years old.

People giving up secure high paying jobs such as a full professor, for the complete uncertainty of the stock market is typically seen at market tops. So add yet another warning sign to the long list. (CAPE, GDP to market cap, inverted yield curve, transports leading the way lower, bad breadth, speculative IPO market).

Be careful out there.

No comments: