Tuesday, March 07, 2006

HUI gold index below 300

HUI 1-yr chart gold bugs index, made up of unhedged gold mining stocks, breaks 300 on the downside. If this were a stock that price level would be more meaningful, because of the round number resistance/support. Because it is an index, it is less meaningful. The HUI top was around 350. Gold bullion held $550 today, so there is some divergence. The steam is coming out of the bullish exuberance and all the "happy talk" of $600 gold by March. It may take that $600 price on the metal to get the HUI back to its highs.

PDLI 10-day looks like it may be headed towards a "pin" at the strike price of 30 for March expiration in 11 days. This would suit the option market makers just fine. I reported the huge volume of March calls being bought before earnings. The option sellers would like nothing better than to have all those calls sold to expire worthless, and will often deploy their capital to make it so. Tough game, buying options at retail. Even when you are right on the news, in this case good earnings and excellent forward guidance, the market makers often do what they can to make the buyers lose money. The put buyers have fared even worse.

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